Staff ReportsPresident Donald Trump’s surprise public endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the GOP runoff has set off a new round of hand-wringing on the left and a very loud debate on cable. CNN’s S.E. Cupp declared on air that a Paxton-versus-Talarico general election would “make Texas in play.” That’s a headline-grabbing take — and one Republicans should take seriously, even if they think the panic button is premature.
Why the Trump endorsement matters
An endorsement from President Trump is not a polite pat on the head. It’s a mobilizer. It comes during early voting and right before the May 26 runoff, when turning out the base can decide everything. Paxton already has a strong following among pro‑Trump voters who rewarded loyalty and firebrand conservatism in past cycles. Trump’s backing pushes Paxton from controversial favorite to the clear standard-bearer for the MAGA crowd, and that reshapes who shows up at the polls and where money flows in the final week.
Cupp’s claim: Is Texas really “in play”?
S.E. Cupp argues a Paxton-Talarico match-up makes the Senate contest competitive for Democrats, and she’s not wrong that the arithmetic has shifted. Recent polls show James Talarico with small leads over both Senator John Cornyn and Paxton, and Talarico’s jaw-dropping fundraising — roughly $27 million raised and nearly $10 million on hand — proves Democrats have the cash to amplify those leads. But “in play” doesn’t mean “doomed.” Paxton’s controversies make him vulnerable in a statewide general, yes, but Trump’s endorsement also hardens conservative turnout that polls taken before this intervention didn’t fully capture.
What Republicans must do now
If Republicans want to avoid a frantic November scramble, they need discipline not drama. That means rallying around the runoff winner — whether Paxton or Cornyn — and focusing on a clear, simple message: keep Texas safe, defend local control, and stop the national Democrats’ spending spree. Republicans should also attack Talarico’s liberal record in plain language that resonates with suburban voters and independents. Fundraising will spike either way; the smart play is to spend early on persuasion and not just on reactive panic ads.
Stakes and the road ahead
Yes, Trump’s endorsement made this race livelier and more expensive. Yes, Talarico’s money and message make Democrats optimistic. But politics is a long game with a short memory — and Texas voters often prefer results over rhetoric. The next week and the May 26 runoff will tell us whether Paxton’s MAGA boost is a tide that lifts the GOP or a wave that leaves the party scrambling in November. Either way, Republicans ignoring Cupp’s warning would be foolish. Time to put down the cable-takes and pick up the voter lists.
