Staff Reports
In a display of unearned confidence, some media personalities and political pundits are touting polling data that allegedly shows Vice President Kamala Harris has already handed former President Donald Trump the proverbial “L” more than two months before Election Day. This commentary, which seems to overlook the lessons of past elections, is reminiscent of that age-old adage about counting chickens before they hatch—or, in this case, counting votes that aren’t even cast yet.
However, one prominent Democratic strategist isn’t joining the premature celebration. David Axelrod, once an adviser to President Obama, has been sounding the alarm among his fellow party members, cautioning them to temper their enthusiasm about Harris’s standing in the polls. He points out that while it may look good on paper, polling data can be about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Elections aren’t won by popularity contests but via the tricky Electoral College, which hinges on a small number of battleground states that can swing the outcome.
Andrew Neil: “Barely ten days ago, Trump pretty much had the presidency in the bag. Even senior Democrats admitted as much, if mainly in private. No longer. The U.S. presidential election of 2024 is now wide open — and the momentum currently resides with Harris.” pic.twitter.com/OqiqecQi2F
— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) July 27, 2024
During a recent CNN segment, Axelrod highlighted a certain danger among Democrats: the risk of being “too euphoric” in their excitement for Harris’ fleeting momentum. While he acknowledged that Harris has made notable strides, Axelrod’s reminder of the Republicans’ potential resurgence should ring alarm bells for Democrats. The memory of the 2020 election still lingers, where Joe Biden enjoyed a healthy national lead, only to barely scrape by in pivotal states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It’s a reminder that polls can shift faster than a politician’s promises.
Axelrod emphasized that if the election were held today, he couldn’t confidently predict a Harris victory, claiming that Trump “may well” wrestle his way back in. The takeaway? Harris’s team needs more than feel-good vibes to convert enthusiasm into votes—something they appear to be blissfully overlooking. It’s like throwing a line of shrimp on the barbecue and expecting it to turn into a five-course meal.
Meanwhile, the latest polling data shares an amusing twist. Though Harris appears to be ahead by a slim margin of 1.5 points, this is nothing compared to Biden’s 7.4-point lead at the same time in the last election cycle. Looking back at 2016, Hillary Clinton was riding high with a 5.7-point cushion—just a statistical brush with the unexpected calamity that awaited her. The unmistakable lesson here is that national leads can vanish faster than voters’ faith in electrifying campaign speeches.
In terms of those all-important battleground states, Trump is currently ahead in five out of seven, reinforcing the notion that Democrat optimism may be drastically misplaced. With states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania leaning in favor of Trump, the political odds do not look promising for Harris. If these trends hold true, it may signal the end of Harris’s political aspirations, while Trump could be polishing up the 45th President title for another round in office. It’s time for liberals to buckle up; the political rollercoaster ride has just begun.
