Staff Reports
Polling data before a big debate often brings mixed news, and this time it’s no different for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as they gear up. Biden caught a moment of glory with his first lead in a Fox News poll since last year, now sitting 2 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head—though that shrinks to a mere 1 point when third-party candidates enter the fray. Keep the confetti on hold, folks.
Trump, however, isn’t exactly panicking. His overall lead in the RealClearPolitics average, albeit a slim 0.5 percent, remains. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s average nudges Biden ahead by 0.1 percent, thanks to a handful of recent national polls favoring the Democrat by minor margins. But here’s where the plot thickens: swing-state polling, courtesy of the Hill and Emerson College, shows Trump flexing some serious battleground muscle. He’s not just ahead in six states; he’s tied in a seventh when matched against Biden. Including third-party candidates, Trump’s lead expands across all seven.\
Good news and bad news for Trump in the polls https://t.co/TVm04pQGUA via @dcexaminer
— Louise B Eisenhardt (@LouiseBEisenha2) June 21, 2024
Oh, and about that seventh state—it’s Minnesota. Historically, the land of 10,000 lakes hasn’t warmed up to Republicans since Nixon’s landslide in 1972. Talk about an unexpected contender cropping up in the race! Add an Ipsos swing-state survey to the mix, and the results are eyebrow-raising: Trump up by 2 points in a five-way race, and enjoying a 3-point buffer against Biden alone. Trump’s advantage might not be huge, but in close contests, small margins can carry big consequences.
Now, for those fretting over Trump’s legal woes, it seems his base is still solidly in his corner. Even after his conviction in the New York hush money trial, a core of the Republican electorate stands firm, bolstered by belief that the system is rigged against him. Independents are another story, currently leaning Biden by 9 points according to Fox—but how that plays out across different polls is anyone’s guess. Biden gets kudos from some voters on integrity, while Trump is still seen as a strong leader, albeit by a hair.
Remember third-party candidates? Their impact in 2024 remains up in the air, but historically, they’ve siphoned more votes from Democrats than Republicans. That spells potential good news for Trump, who benefits from a crowded field dividing the anti-Trump vote. Whether it’s Jill Stein, Cornel West, or the unpredictable Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the more, the merrier—for Trump, at least.
Regardless of popular vote swings, the magic number for both candidates is the Electoral College tally. Swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and others will decide the 2024 outcome, just like they did in 2016 when Trump took down Hillary Clinton. National polls might grab headlines, but it’s those battlegrounds that will clinch a second term—or not. Big moments still loom, from the debates to the Republican National Convention, ensuring this battle royale is far from decided. Hold onto your hats, it’s going to be a wild ride.
