Staff Reports
In the days after Donald Trump’s conviction, new polls have shown that not much has changed in the race between him and President Joe Biden. This could be a problem for President Biden as he faces re-election, since he remains deeply unpopular. Although there has been some small movement in the polls, it is unclear if this will last or if it will be enough by the time of the November election. The key battleground states continue to be crucial to watch, and similar results are being seen there as well.
A survey conducted by The New York Times/Siena College found that President Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Mr. Trump’s conviction. However, Trump still remains at 47 percent, while Biden stands at 46 percent. Trump was previously at 48 percent, while Biden was at 45 percent. When it comes to Trump supporters reconsidering their vote, 93 percent say they’re sticking by the presumptive Republican nominee. However, 7 percent could still be significant in what looks to be a close and competitive election.
The study suggests that losing 7 percent of supporters could be decisive in a close election. In recent polls, Biden either leads or is within two points of Trump in states and districts worth the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. A potentially crucial sliver of Trump’s former supporters – 3 percent – now say they’ll back Biden, while another 4 percent say they’re now undecided. The study also depicts an unsettled electorate, with many disengaged voters who might swing over the months ahead. Even Biden retained only 96 percent of his former supporters, with 1.5 percent of those former supporters saying they would now back Trump, despite the news of his conviction, and the rest moving to undecided.
The findings raise questions about whether the verdict changed anyone’s mind and suggest that there is still plenty of time for Trump to regain his standing. The study offers no reason to assume that Trump has lost these voters for good, and many still haven’t made up their minds about the verdict. Furthermore, results from a recent poll suggest that Trump supporters are more enthusiastic about voting for him, which could potentially benefit Trump’s campaign.
The study also raised the issue of the importance of other factors such as inflation to voters. It suggested that while the verdict may have energized some of Trump’s disengaged supporters, many Americans may not care much about the trial. As the election approaches, it will be interesting to see how these factors play out and influence voters’ decisions. The study also noted that it is not necessarily representative of the entire electorate and may be more likely than the typical poll to overrepresent the most politically engaged voters.
Overall, the polls continue to indicate a close and competitive election. Trump remains leading in key battleground states, and a Quinnipiac University poll out of Georgia showed him leading Biden by a significant margin. This suggests that despite the small shift towards Biden in some polls, the race remains tight and the outcome of the election is still uncertain.
