Staff Reports
CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten recently laid out a scenario that should send shivers down the spines of the Democrat Party. According to his analysis on “CNN News Central,” former President Donald Trump stands in a favorable position against Vice President Kamala Harris in the upcoming presidential election, largely due to the sinking belief among Americans that the country is on the right track. A mere 28 percent think things are heading in the right direction, and history suggests that doesn’t bode well for the incumbent party.
To put this into context, the historical data indicates that when the incumbent party is in trouble, those who believe the country is on track usually hover around 25 percent. With only 28 percent of Americans expressing positivity about the nation’s trajectory, one has to wonder if this is a sign that voters are getting ready to give the Democrats a taste of reality. Enten dug into the archives and discovered one sobering fact: no incumbent party has ever won when public sentiment sat at just 28 percent favoring the status quo.
CNN’s Enten: Right Track Number a Sign of Coming Trump Victoryhttps://t.co/rssyEVbry6
— Goober Biden (@gooberbiden) October 31, 2024
This data paints a picture of voter frustration, which likely plays right into Trump’s hands. As the country grapples with high inflation, border crises, and increasing crime rates, it’s easier for voters to look back fondly at Trump’s tenure, where gas prices didn’t break the bank, and the southern border didn’t resemble a revolving door.
Adding another layer to this narrative, Enten emphasized that the 28 percent figure mirrors historical dip points leading into elections. It’s almost as if history is repeating itself, allowing Trump to ride the wave of discontent straight to victory. For the Democrats, this is akin to a proverbial game of musical chairs where they could easily be left standing when the music stops.
In a political climate where most voters are expressing dissatisfaction, the odds seem stacked against Harris and her supporters. If they thought the election landscape was difficult last time, they might want to brace themselves for an even stronger Trump in the ring. When history is not on your side, and the public is displeased, navigating a path toward victory becomes a Herculean task.
