Staff Reports
The 2024 Republican primary candidates not named Donald Trump are vying for a chance to shine in the upcoming opening debate. Despite Trump’s continued dominance, these candidates hope that the debates will help them make significant progress in the race. However, the debates are also putting pressure on some candidates to drop out, allowing a non-Trump contender to emerge.
Evan Siegfried, a party strategist, has urged candidates who don’t qualify for the debates to suspend their campaigns. He believes that if candidates like Francis Suarez can’t garner enough support to qualify for the debates, they have no business running for president. According to Siegfried, some candidates are merely using their campaigns as opportunities to secure a Cabinet position, a book deal, increased speaking fees, or even the vice presidency.
Chris Sununu, the Republican governor of New Hampshire, echoes Siegfried’s sentiment. He wrote that candidates polling in the low single digits by Christmas should acknowledge their shortcomings and suspend their campaigns. Sununu believes that the field needs to shrink to the top three or four candidates before the New Hampshire primary.
Even if some candidates were to drop out, it doesn’t guarantee a successful challenger to Trump. A recent CBS poll showed that Trump still holds 62% support among Republicans. Siegfried points out that even if another viable candidate emerged, their highest ceiling of support in that poll is only 38%. Additionally, candidates like Chris Christie may qualify for the debate stage, but they face unfavorable ratings among Republicans.
Republican debate: Can the debates help winnow the GOP field? https://t.co/qRMmnRfb3a
— ruth young (@ruthfyoung) August 22, 2023
It’s no surprise that many candidates realize they are unlikely to win the nomination. Trump’s hold on the party has been evident from the beginning. Despite initial hopes that his legal troubles would harm his chances, candidates now rely on the electorate’s response to his court appearances. However, Trump has plans to counterprogram the debate with a high-profile interview and his surrender to authorities in relation to the January 6th case.
Qualified candidates can take solace in the fact that campaigns rarely die instantly due to debates. However, a poor performance can set them on the path to eventual extinction. Presidential historian David Pietrusza cites past examples, such as Chris Christie’s debate demolition of Marco Rubio in 2016. Candidates like Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott have faced high expectations but must prove themselves on the debate stage.
In the end, ten candidates have qualified for the first debate, including Trump, DeSantis, Pence, Haley, Scott, and others. However, notable figures like Francis Suarez, Will Hurd, and Larry Elder have not made the cut. It remains to be seen how the debates will shape the trajectory of the Republican primary race, but one thing is clear—it’s still Donald Trump’s nomination to lose.
