Staff Reports
It seems the political winds are shifting dramatically in favor of former President Donald Trump as fresh election forecast models emerge, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris scrambling to keep pace. Numerous reputable sources such as FiveThirtyEight, Decision Desk HQ, and others have analyzed the numbers and, surprise, surprise: Trump is pulling ahead faster than a jackrabbit in a carrot patch.
The number crunchers have spoken: Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are sitting pretty at around 52 percent, while Harris lags behind at a rather unimpressive 42 percent. For those keeping score at home, that’s a solid reminder that the former president is still a formidable contender despite being given the political equivalent of a year-long time-out. Late August saw Harris riding high with a 54 to 56 percent probability of victory, but as autumn rolled in, so did a cold front for her chances. Now, Trump’s resurgence has gone from a mere whisper of possibility to a full-throttle announcement.
🚨 JUST IN: Trump has SURGED to a new high in latest election forecast.
🔴 Trump: 65.9%
🔵 Harris: 34%Trump's PENNSYLVANIA odds are 67.7%!@J_L_Partners pic.twitter.com/2cwrsT5cTD
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
In the realm of swing states—a fancy term for places everyone knows are critical—Trump’s numbers are as robust as a military tank. Forecasts indicate that he has a remarkable 67.7 percent likelihood of winning Pennsylvania, a state that Harris was counting on to save her skin, and a staggering 76.9 percent in North Carolina. Georgia isn’t far behind with a solid 75 percent in Trump’s favor, and Arizona chimes in with a respectable 62.3 percent advantage. One can almost hear the sound of Harris’s campaign team chewing their nails to the quick.
Polling aficionado Nate Silver chimed in from his data-driven perch at FiveThirtyEight, claiming that Harris is facing an uphill battle. An alarming trend for her appears to be taking shape as Trump continues to lead in several recent national polls. Meanwhile, despite Harris’s supposed national lead of 48.8 percent over Trump’s 47.2 percent in one model, it seems that the public sentiment has more love for the flamboyant former President than the somewhat uninspiring current VP.
Even the betting odds are reflecting this shift, with Trump holding a commanding 59.0 to Harris’s 39.8. It seems the public’s confidence is swaying like a pendulum, and at this point, it may take superhuman effort on Harris’s part to swing those numbers back. For the Democrats, it’s a frantic scramble to rectify their failing fortunes while the Trump train rolls on, possibly poised for another run at the Oval Office. The road ahead may be decidedly bumpier for Harris, and there’s a fair chance that the question on everyone’s lips will soon turn from “Can she keep up?” to “Will she even make it to the starting line?”
