Staff Reports
The Vice President’s 2024 campaign is facing some turbulence, particularly when it comes to her standing among Black voters, a group she has long claimed to represent. While Kamala Harris enthusiastically promoted her connection to the African American community at a Congressional Black Caucus Foundation dinner in Washington, some in her party are sounding alarm bells. It seems that despite her well-crafted speeches about hard work and community leadership, the enthusiasm that once buoyed her candidacy may have dissipated like a hot air balloon one too many pinpricks.
A recent report suggests the stakes are high for Democrats, with Black voter turnout historically serving as the backbone for their electoral victories. Harris needs to not only maintain but ramp up support within this crucial demographic in several swing states, or else the Democratic boat may be set adrift. Data shows that her ability to get voters excited and engaged is waning. Apparently, preaching about economic opportunity and reproductive rights hasn’t done much to stir up the base. Surprising, isn’t it? Who would’ve thought that hollow platitudes might leave some feeling uninspired?
In 2020, Black support for Biden was around 90 percent, but that’s dropped closer to the 85 percent mark as some younger Black men start to drift toward Republican ideas. A new poll points out that one in four younger Black men are contemplating a vote for Trump, which must feel like a cold shower for Harris and her campaign strategists. Among Black women, Harris enjoys some strong support—67 percent back her—whereas Black men under 50 are singing a different tune, with her numbers plummeting to 49 percent. If Harris had a dollar for every slumping approval rating, she’d need a tax break.
Liberal Outlet Identifies Major 'Warning Sign' For Kamala Harris' Campaignhttps://t.co/7xtF8G0SUS
— JOSH DUNLAP (@JDunlap1974) September 18, 2024
The demographic patterns emerging indicate a shift that should have the Democrats sweating through their tailored suits. Although Black voter turnout increased from 60 percent to 63 percent between 2016 and 2020, those numbers couldn’t hold a candle to the record highs of the Obama era. It begs the question of whether Democrats can craft a message that resonates more deeply than “Vote for us because we’re not them.”
In a nod to strategic campaigning, Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison emphasized the importance of turnout in rural areas. His vision—get more voters out in less populated regions to ease the pressure on urban turnout—might sound good on paper. But is it really going to help Kamala Harris flip those must-win states? It appears Harris’s path to the White House might need a bit more than persuasive talk about unity and outreach in Republican strongholds.
As the Democratic Party navigates this tricky terrain, they might want to consider that merely appealing to tribal affiliations is no longer enough for voters who are beginning to think outside the box—perhaps even outside the ballot box. The question remains whether Harris can light a spark of enthusiasm where her message seems to have turned into a damp squib. Otherwise, her 2024 dreams might turn into a pumpkin before midnight strikes.
