Staff Reports
Nate Silver, a name that sends shivers down the spines of liberal pundits, is back at it, and this time he’s got a treasure trove of reasons why Kamala Harris could crash and burn come Election Day. Silver’s latest assessment has shown Donald Trump gaining ground,with a nearly 60 percent chance of winning the upcoming presidential election. That is, until Harris made a not-so-original switcheroo, which appeared to create a momentary buzz before fizzling out like so many Democratic campaign promises.
The left is scrambling to understand how Harris, who they once touted as the great progressive hope, has floundered against Trump. Silver lays out 24 unvarnished reasons for this downtrodden outlook, chief among them Harris’s inability to define herself as anything other than a mediocre candidate. Sure, she’s a likely contender for the popular vote, but with an Electoral College bias that favors Republicans—thanks to strong conservative voting in swing states—Democrats are facing a significant uphill battle.
This is undeniably a bearish newsletter for Democrats, but I thought it was important to articulate why it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump wins and why Harris faces difficult circumstances.https://t.co/i5ZELFEqbn
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 20, 2024
The inflation rollercoaster, which peaked at 9.1 percent under the Biden administration, continues to haunt Harris like a ghost in a horror film. While prices have slightly declined from their ghastly highs, they remain burdensome, and voters are keenly aware of how the Democrats’ spending sprees contributed to this economic malaise. For an administration that prides itself on tackling economic issues, its members seem bewildered that voters are holding them accountable for the financial pinch they’ve felt for years.
A global study of political incumbency reveals that the tides are not in favor of the party currently in power. Historically, voters have associated incumbent parties with stability; however, under Biden and Harris, the narrative has shifted, and the notion of incumbency is starting to resemble an albatross around their necks. As voters look at the direction of the country, it’s clear they’re less than enthused about what they see, which is bad news for any incumbent looking for reelection.
Additionally, many voters are feeling nostalgic for the economic boom that characterized Trump’s first three years in office. The Democrats have been busy painting themselves as saviors, but the public seems more inclined to remember the robust economy and stable lives they enjoyed before COVID-related complexities spiraled out of control. Now, as inflation remains a hot topic, voters recall who was in charge during those golden days and are less willing to trust the party that has masterminded these recent hardships.
The address by Silver, while darkly humorous for conservatives, highlights the many missteps of a party that has shifted to the left and lost touch with everyday Americans. The cultural pendulum is swinging rightward, and as Democrats grapple with their identity crises—from “defund the police” to the continued backlash against COVID lockdowns—they risk alienating the very voters they once relied upon. With rising challenges from the left, including third-party candidates and even some prominent figures seemingly backing Trump, it’s shaping up to be a turbulent ride into the 2024 election.
