Staff Reports
The New York Times has unleashed a doozy of a poll, revealing that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck just days before the election. In a classic move of journalistic surprise, the poll in partnership with Siena College shows them tied at 48%. If the Times had a reputation for accuracy, one might think that’s a reason to celebrate in Harris’s camp. But let’s not kid ourselves—this is the same paper that loved to proclaim Biden was a shoe-in just four years ago while underestimating the silent Trump voter base.
Digging into the details of this latest survey, it’s apparent that Americans are finally looking at reality with a clearer lens. While Joe Biden was sporting a 9% lead over Trump back in 2020, this time around, Trump is making waves with a noticeable plus 11 support margin among white voters, who dominate the electoral landscape. So, it’s safe to say that the demography is shifting, and not in Harris’s favor.
According to Vantage Data House's non-partisan analysis…we have "The Blowout No One Saw Coming". Here are their numbers vs. 538 and RCP which do incorporate trash polls this cycle. pic.twitter.com/4XzVYxqpyJ
— Zully Francisco (@ZullyFra) October 25, 2024
In the latest poll, Trump has seen a bump of 2 points while Harris has seen her numbers drop by 1. But the cherry on top of this electoral sundae comes from the states where Jill Stein—a perennial third-party candidate—makes her appearance. In those regions, Trump’s numbers mysteriously rise by 3 points, as he leads Harris narrowly 47-46%. This isn’t just a hypothetical; it’s a clear sign that progressives are feeling burned by Harris’s lukewarm approach to critical issues, like Palestinian support, prompting many to flirt with voting for Stein instead.
The implications of this are massive for swing states that traditionally lean blue. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—part of the oh-so-reliable “blue wall”—are in danger. Michigan, in particular, poses a headache for Harris due to its sizeable Arab-American demographic. Trump has been actively campaigning in these areas, aiming to chip away at her support among minority voters. It’s like watching the Titanic slowly take on water, and Kamala just might be the captain that doesn’t notice until it’s too late.
In a panicked response, the Democratic National Committee recently rolled out an ad ominously titled “Danger,” warning that voting for Stein is akin to handing a victory to Trump. The dramatic imagery features Stein’s face morphing into Trump’s—perhaps an attempt to add some Hollywood flair to the campaign rhetoric. In reality, this is more of a desperate plea than a reasoned approach. If anyone is in danger in this election cycle, it’s Harris, as recent data indicates that even progressive candidates like Cornell West are siphoning off precious votes that she desperately needs.
With the Wall Street Journal reporting Trump is ahead of Harris 47-45% nationally, it’s apparent that the Times might be skewing things for a more liberal audience. The upcoming election proves to be a wild ride, especially with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. still hanging around, collecting support despite his drop-out status. A mere 3% remain undecided—a sliver of undecided voters can tip the scales in a presidential race. If the current trends continue, it looks like Harris has more to worry about than her party’s casual parlor games. In the end, the polls seem to echo a sentiment too loud to ignore: Americans are ready for something different, and that might just mean a second term for Trump.
