Staff Reports
In the latest twist of the political drama that is this presidential race, it seems Joe Biden’s attempt to hand over the reins to Kamala Harris has stirred up the proverbial hornet’s nest. Polls show that Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to a teeny 0.8 points. For those trying to find a silver lining in this cloud of uncertainty, one particular pollster is still waving the flag for Trump. Rasmussen Reports, the not-so-quiet stalwart of conservative polling, recently indicated a five-point cushion for Trump nationally, a number that has the left clutching their pearls while labeling Rasmussen as a ‘pro-Trump’ entity.
The left’s immediate reaction to Rasmussen’s findings was predictably dismissive. Social media was flooded with claims that this polling outfit must have some sort of GOP voodoo applied to its methodology. Well, if only these “low information media types” (a phrase that could be a bestseller for a certain type of book) could see the forest for the trees. According to Mark Mitchell, head honcho at Rasmussen Reports, their polling record has been remarkably accurate, with 2016 predictions hitting the bullseye and 2020 being just a smidge generous towards Biden. Yet, in the echo chamber of the left, independent analysis seems to fall on deaf ears.
Our Weekly 2020 Estimates
If you look at our very final estimate we were Biden +1 or 3.5 points off the final 4.5 point actual.
If you average our 5 final weeks (Biden +1, +3, +5, +12 & +8) you get 5.8 or 1.3 points off the 4.5 point actual.
Now, look at this race … https://t.co/O8vhxy2J3o pic.twitter.com/nnQJ5cIxoI
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 1, 2024
Mitchell dutifully analyzed the political climate, noting that despite some initial “honeymoon” enthusiasm surrounding Harris, that excitement is fading faster than a soda left in the sun. The recent polling dynamics echo more of a looming disaster rather than a lovefest for the Vice President. It’s worth noting that Rasmussen’s confidence stems from their commitment to polling likely voters instead of the half-hearted approach of their counterparts who use registered voter samples. They know that likely voters are the ones who actually show up at the polls—not those sleepy-eyed folks who sign up but never cast a ballot.
Continuing the crystal ball act, Mitchell forecasted a close race ahead, suggesting Trump could maintain a one to five-point lead nationally unless something unexpected were to transpire. Who knows, perhaps Harris will have a shocking “emperor with no clothes” moment and end up significantly underwhelming.
As the Election Night excitement builds, it’s clear that eyes will be glued to the states that could swing either way. Despite Trump currently leading in key states, Republican candidates are facing uphill battles. Even though there’s chatter about Harris shaking up the demographics in favor of the Democrats, Mitchell’s analysis suggests it’s more like a gentle breeze than a hurricane. Trump still boasts around 30% support from the black community, giving the left less cause to celebrate just yet.
If the Democrats snag a victory in November, brace for impact. Should that happen, the country will likely see record inflation, unchecked national debt, wide-open borders teeming with chaos, increased national violence, and an education system drowning in radical agendas. The stakes have never been higher, and this election will determine America’s trajectory for years to come.
