Staff Reports
Hold on to your MAGA hats, because it looks like the Red Wave is gaining serious momentum in key battleground states according to the latest shift in Electoral College ratings. The Cook Political Report, not exactly known for conservative bias, has updated its map to favor former President Donald Trump, while President Biden’s grip on the political future looks shakier than a California earthquake.
Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have been upgraded from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” And let’s not overlook the shifts in Minnesota and New Hampshire, which have been downgraded from “likely” to “lean Democrat.” Even Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is teetering from “likely” to “lean” Democrat. If Biden were any less stable, they’d be carting him off on a stretcher.
The notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 9, 2024
Electoral analysts from the Cook Political Report, such as Dave Wasserman, are practically calling the race for Trump. Wasserman points out that the idea of the presidential race being a “Toss-Up” was a stretch even before Biden’s faceplant of a debate performance. According to these ratings, Trump now enjoys a clear lead and a more plausible path to the magical 270 Electoral votes. In other words, despite being “under indictment” and “mean tweets,” Trump seems to be doing just fine.
Adding gasoline to the dumpster fire, Biden’s June 27th debate performance has done little to instill confidence in even his most ardent supporters. House Democrats met behind closed doors, probably discussing whether they should put out Biden’s political misery. No consensus there either, just more nervous glances and furrowed brows. Cook Political Report’s Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter pointed out that Democrats expected a flood of congressional defections by now, but so far it’s been more of a trickle. Regardless, jittery down-ballot Democrats and donors seem to be looking at Biden’s poll numbers like they’re the sinking Titanic.
After the first debate cycle, Trump widened his lead over Biden by a solid 6 points nationwide. And while recent polls from June 30 to July 2 show a slight narrowing to an average of 4 points across critical states, Trump still has a comfortable edge. Current numbers from Cook Political Report suggest Trump holds over a 3-point lead in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, while Biden’s lead in Wisconsin and Michigan is about as thin as a paper straw.
Amy Walter further noted that narrow margins make every point shift crucial; a 2-point swing could change the game entirely. If Trump were to win the national vote by three points, it would be nothing short of a seismic shift compared to his 2020 performance. Essentially, Biden would find himself in jeopardy in any state he carried by eight points or less.
Meanwhile, Democratic lawmakers appear to be in full-blown panic mode, ringing alarm bells about Biden’s viability to retake the House, hold the Senate, or even hang onto the White House. Some, like Rep. Glenn Ivey from Maryland, are hinting at a need for resolution by the convention, but with a collective strategy that looks more like a Keystone Cops routine, who can say?
Right now, Biden seems to be the only person unaware of the writing on the wall, as Republicans watch the Democratic implosion with a mix of amusement and relief. Even Democratic voices acknowledge the circular firing squad they’re in while warning that this infighting only weakens Biden and the party further. Rep. Jared Huffman called for the party to refocus on bashing Trump, but with Biden at the helm, that pivot might be little more than wishful thinking.
As Trump’s lead becomes more secure and Democrats continue their circular firing squad, one can only imagine how much more absurd this spectacle will get by election day.
