Staff Reports
Early voting is shaping up to be a nail-biter for Vice President Kamala Harris, and emerging trends are enough to raise a few eyebrows in Democratic circles. In an unexpected twist, early voting numbers are indicating a surge in Republican participation, which could spell trouble for the Biden administration as the clock ticks down to Election Day.
As of the latest updates, over 15.2 million ballots have already been cast nationwide, with Democrats currently leading the pack at 46 percent of the early votes. Republicans trail at 36 percent, while a smattering of 18 percent remains unaffiliated with either party. Given the Democrats’ push for mail-in voting—a tactic that served them well in the 2020 election—this early lead might not seem surprising. However, Republicans have historically favored in-person voting due to concerns over potential voter fraud associated with mail-in methods.
BREAKING: Republicans are on the verge of leading the Nevada early and mail-in voting. At this point in 2020, Democrats led by over 15 points.
🔵 Democratic: 72,196
🔴 Republican: 69,377
🟡 Other: 46,427Data from Ralston and TargetEarly
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 21, 2024
Interestingly, despite former President Donald Trump’s past criticisms of early voting, his campaign has recently encouraged supporters to bank their ballots ahead of the big day. With the Harris campaign holding just a slim 10-point lead compared to a 15-point advantage for Democrats at the same time in 2020, the early voter turnout dynamics are shifting in favor of the GOP. What was once a comfortable lead for Democrats is now looking a bit more precarious.
The early returns from Nevada are particularly telling. For the first time, Republicans have surpassed Democrats in early and mail-in voting, which, if the trend continues, suggests that Trump could easily snatch up the state. Numbers show a near-8,000 vote margin in favor of the GOP after just a few days of early voting. While the Democrats still maintain some edge in heavily blue areas, the gap is narrowing, giving the Republican Party an unexpected spine-tingling surge.
GOP is surging in Nevada.
After the third day of early voting and including mail, GOP is up almost 8K voters. In Clark, which is heavily Democrat, Ds have outvoted Rs by less than 5K votes.
GOP is winning Washoe too.
If this keeps up, Trump will win Nevada easily. pic.twitter.com/y5oCJHyN09
— Victor Joecks (@VictorJoecks) October 22, 2024
Arizona is also displaying alarming signs for the Harris camp with Democratic early voting down a staggering 46 percent from 2020. This collapse in enthusiasm could be the canary in the coal mine, foreshadowing a rough day for Democrats if this momentum shifts further. Meanwhile, in Florida, Republicans are not just participating; they are absolutely decimating early voting trends with reports of a stunning R+24 advantage. Even traditionally blue areas like Miami are showing encouraging signs for the GOP.
Swing states critical to both parties are showing a noticeable shift as Republicans enjoy a ten-point swing in early voting since 2020. As this trend unfolds, it rapidly becomes clear that the Harris administration’s scrappy, media-spun image appears increasingly untenable as evidence mounts against their competence. The looming prospect of Kamala Harris remaining in power is a chilling thought for many, and an election outcome on November 5 seems crucial to ending what many see as a disastrous term in office. Voters might just be ready to send a message loud and clear: it’s time for a change.
