Staff Reports
Russia is suddenly showing a keen interest in negotiating a prisoner swap with the United States, and the reason is as clear as a vodka shot. It seems that the mere prospect of a possible Donald Trump presidency is enough to send Moscow into a tizzy and hasten deals they once dragged their feet on. This revelation comes from the ever-reliable Wall Street Journal, particularly in light of Evan Gerskovich’s recent release.
The Journal pointed out that Russia’s urgency appears tied to the fears of having the unpredictable Trump back at the helm. The Kremlin has made it known that they’d prefer to finalize any agreements before the November elections. Apparently, this has led to some interesting assumptions among officials who speculate whether Vladimir Putin’s brigade is shaking in their boots at the thought of Trump re-entering the White House. Also looming in their mind is that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz might not be so eager to lend a hand if Trump starts airing out his grievances against Germany—an idea that, frankly, could make for some entertaining diplomatic spats.
WSJ: Fear of Trump Prompted Russia to Speed Up Prisoner Swap https://t.co/mn1pzKplx4
— NahBabyNah #Trump (@NahBabyNah) August 5, 2024
At a recent Republican National Convention, Trump made headlines again by declaring that he wanted hostages back before he took office, with a not-so-subtle implication that anyone who didn’t comply would be facing consequences. This is classic Trump bravado, and whether it’s a negotiation tactic or just Twitter-install-worthy bravado, it has certainly made the world pay attention. After all, giving in to terrorist demands might be a hallmark of the current administration, but Trump made a name for himself by getting Americans back home without making a one-sided deal.
The history of Trump’s approach to foreign hostage situations is a stark contrast to the current Biden administration’s strategy. While the Biden team has demonstrated a tendency to swap out dangerous prisoners for Americans—effectively handing out get-out-of-jail-free cards—Trump entertained none of that nonsense. An exemplary moment was in 2018 when Turkey released Pastor Andrew Brunson after Trump served up a hefty economic threat, showcasing a tougher stance diplomatic endpoint that is sorely lacking today.
It is telling that Russia may prefer the current administration’s willingness to negotiate over hostage situations, likely believing they can get away with more under Biden without much pushback. Meanwhile, the Journal also highlighted the inconvenient truth that plenty of Americans still rot away in Russian prisons, courtesy of the delicate diplomacy exercised by the powers that be in D.C. The possibility of Trump returning to office could mean a radical shift in how the U.S. handles international hostage crises—something Russia would much rather avoid during this window of opportunity.
