Staff Reports
The Trump campaign is putting its best foot forward, feeling rather chipper about the early voting data emerging from key battleground states just weeks ahead of the November elections. This shift in sentiment marks quite the turnaround from 2020, a year when Republicans had effectively thrown in the towel on early voting, leaving that playing field to the Democrats. Back then, the party was notorious for its Election Day allegiance, while former President Trump took every opportunity to deride mail-in and absentee voting as fraud factories.
While it’s true that not every state dishes out partisan early voting stats, the trends that are surfacing could spell trouble for Vice President Kamala Harris. With the clock ticking down, she has precious little time to redirect the ship. As of now, about 19 million ballots have been cast, but if analysts like the University of Florida’s Election Lab are to be believed, 45% of those are from Democrats, 34% from Republicans, and the remaining 22% belong to a mixed bag of independents and minor party enthusiasts. Yet, the trumpet of victory can still be heard from Trump’s camp.
Early voting in swing states shows a significant 10 point shift in Republican turnout from 2020 to 2024.
The early numbers bode well for Trump. pic.twitter.com/oxnq1Ku8v2
— Dissident Media (@DissidentMedia) October 20, 2024
In the critical state of Pennsylvania, often dubbed the blue wall’s keystone, the Trump campaign is crowing about its voter registration numbers and rising absentee ballot requests. Registration deadlines have just closed, allowing both sides to finalize their game plans for this crucial battleground. The Trump team proudly declares that they are outpacing Democrats in registration, keeping true to the former president’s rallying cry for early voting. This despite the fact that Harris continues to push a narrative of optimism regarding the Democrats’ prospects.
North Carolina is another state where the Trump campaign sees green pastures. Here, the narrow victory Trump snagged in 2020 has them declaring victory in early in-person and absentee voting, all the while downplaying potential setbacks from Hurricane Helene. In Clark County, Nevada—once a Democratic fortress—the Trump campaign believes they are gaining ground as well. This newfound enthusiasm marks a significant pivot from the previous attitude regarding early voting; it’s as if they’ve realized that surrendering the early vote to Democrats is akin to handing over the keys to the kingdom.
Speaking of Democrats, Harris’s attempts to frame the narrative around early voting turnout as a boon for her side have become more desperate. She seems to be soaking in the early voter enthusiasm in states like Georgia and North Carolina while spinning a tale of civic duty in typical fashion. Surprisingly, her optimism contrasts sharply with the unease coursing through her own party as the early voting numbers flirt with troubling trends. It’s clear that Democrats can no longer count on a one-sided advantage in early voting—a fact that may have them sweating bullets come Election Day.
As early voting kicks off in Wisconsin and continues to unfold across the battleground states, the tale of early votes grows murkier. Trump’s supporters see glimmers of hope in registration trends while Democrats are left to grapple with their tight margins. Whatever the outcome, it’s becoming increasingly evident that 2024 is shaping up to be a dogfight—a far cry from the comfortable assumptions of past elections. The air is thick with tension as Republicans charge ahead, and Democrats are, at best, hoping for a miracle.
