Staff Reports
In hypothetical head-to-head contests for the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are neck-and-neck with President Joe Biden. According to a Voters’ Voices Poll conducted by The Center Square and Noble Predictive Insights, Trump garners 41% support compared to Biden’s 44%, with 15% of respondents uncertain. DeSantis performs slightly better with 41% support to Biden’s 43%, and 16% undecided.
This poll indicates that voters no longer see a significant difference between Trump and DeSantis. According to Mike Noble of Noble Predictive Insights, the two Republicans are now seen interchangeably. However, DeSantis has lost some ground to Biden recently, potentially due to Trump’s attacks on the Florida governor. Interestingly, Trump’s recent indictments have actually rallied support from Republican voters, while potentially posing legal liabilities in the general election.
In the Republican primary, Trump remains the clear frontrunner, with 53% support. DeSantis comes in at second place with 18% support, followed by former Vice President Mike Pence and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tie for fifth place. In a theoretical head-to-head matchup between Trump and DeSantis, respondents overwhelmingly chose Trump over DeSantis.
In terms of demographics, support for the Republican candidates mirrors the general population. Trump and DeSantis enjoy similar levels of support among men and women, while Scott, Haley, and Pence have varying degrees of support among the two groups. Trump also garners significant support among Hispanic Republicans, with 62% in favor of his candidacy.
Despite Trump’s ongoing legal issues, his numbers have not been significantly impacted, likely due to Biden’s own legal troubles. An ongoing investigation into Biden and his son Hunter Biden has added to allegations of corruption within their family. All these dynamics make the head-to-head matchups between Trump and Biden or DeSantis unpredictable.
It is essential to note that this poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights and surveyed 1,000 Republican registered voters, 1,000 Democratic voters, and 500 Independents. The survey has a margin of error of 2.4%.
