Staff Reports
In a recent survey released by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, it was found that Former President Donald Trump holds a slender lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, a decisive battleground state for the 2024 election. Among registered voters, Trump is currently ahead of Biden by 2 percentage points, with 47% supporting Trump and 45% leaning towards Biden. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 3% support, while Cornel West and Jill Stein from the Green Party each secured 1%.
The survey also revealed that Trump has a 2 percentage point lead over Biden among independent voters, a demographic that played a crucial role in the 2020 election. This shift in support among independents could be concerning for Biden, as he carried this voting bloc by a significant margin in the previous election.
Furthermore, Biden maintains a lead with black voters in Pennsylvania, garnering 68% of the vote compared to Trump’s 23%. However, this gap is narrower than it was in the 2020 national exit polls, indicating a potential shift in support within this demographic.
Washington Examiner: Trump narrowly leads Biden by 2 percentage points in Pennsylvania poll https://t.co/shGrVtx5fx
— Ian Hansen 🇺🇸🇺🇸 (@IanHansenFeed) June 12, 2024
It is important to note that both Biden and Trump have received high negative ratings from Pennsylvanians. More than half of those surveyed hold an unfavorable view of Biden, at 55%, while 42% have a favorable opinion of him. Similarly, 53% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Trump, with 43% expressing a positive opinion of the former president.
The survey also provides insight into the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) is facing a challenge from Republican David McCormick. The poll indicates that Casey is ahead of McCormick by a margin of 52% to 46%. Casey receives a higher favorability rating, with 46% of residents having a favorable view of him, compared to 31% with an unfavorable opinion. McCormick, on the other hand, has a 33% favorable rating and a similar 31% unfavorable rating.
In summary, the Marist poll highlights the competitive landscape in Pennsylvania, a state that both parties are aiming to win in the upcoming election. The survey, conducted from June 3-6 with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, provides valuable insights into the shifting political dynamics in the state, with potential implications for both the presidential election and the Senate race.
