Staff Reports
In the wild and woolly world of GOP politics, one thing is certain: Donald Trump’s endorsement is political gold. It’s become the ultimate prize, the golden ticket, the Excalibur of Republican primaries. With a staggering success rate of 93% in 2022 and 97% in 2020, a nod from The Donald almost guarantees victory in these contentious races.
But winning over the former president is no walk in the park. Simply showering Trump with praise or waving a MAGA flag isn’t enough. Recent primaries in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia demonstrate that Trump doesn’t always go for the most far-right candidates, much to the chagrin of his hardcore base. Instead, he’s been known to back more centrist or establishment-aligned candidates, causing quite a bit of griping amongst the right-wing purists.
This strategy, while controversial, has delivered results. In general elections, Trump’s picks have delivered a solid 83% win rate in 2022 and 78% in 2020. Yet, Trump’s tactical pivot, aimed at bolstering electable candidates for general elections, hasn’t exactly thrilled his loyalists. The tension is palpable, with some claiming he’s endorsing candidates who are more akin to moderate Mike Rogers than the rock-ribbed conservatives they yearn for.
The art of the endorsement: What goes into Trump’s primary picks https://t.co/XrHgflDAWg
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) June 23, 2024
Some Trump allies have attempted to explain this centrist endorsement trend. They argue that loyalty in return for loyalty is a cornerstone of Trump’s approach. If a candidate backed Trump’s presidential campaign, they’re more likely to receive his endorsement. It’s a simple quid pro quo. For example, Trump endorsed John McGuire, a former Navy SEAL and state legislator, over Bob Good. Good, despite aligning with Trump on many issues, had made the cardinal sin of endorsing Ron DeSantis for president, which Trump apparently took to heart.
Take the Nevada primary, for instance, where Trump endorsed Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown over Jeff Gunter, who had been one of Trump’s ambassadorial appointees and a staunch supporter. Gunter, perhaps feeling betrayed, complained about corruption and even lobbed a few gentle criticisms Trump’s way. Unsurprisingly, Brown, with Trump’s endorsement in hand, obliterated Gunter in the primary, winning by a whopping 40 points.
Then there’s the curious case of Larry Hogan, the former Maryland governor and one of the few Republicans who managed to thrive in a deeply blue state. Despite Hogan’s known anti-Trump sentiment, some Republicans are willing to hold their noses and support him for Senate, hoping his popular backing can flip the seat. Trump, always a pragmatic showman, endorsed Hogan, but Hogan, ever the political contortionist, swiftly distanced himself to avoid alienating centrist voters.
In Colorado, the GOP there has shown loyalty to Trump that borders on zealotry. Yet, even in this stronghold, Trump endorsed state Rep. Gabe Evans over their chosen candidate, Janak Joshi. Despite Evans’s full-throated Trump support and tough stance on immigration, the Colorado GOP just couldn’t come to terms with him, underscoring that even in Trump’s fiefdoms, internal squabbles persist.
As the GOP navigates these choppy waters, one thing is clear: Trump’s endorsements, while sometimes seemingly capricious, are vital chess moves in his bid to influence the party’s future. Regardless of whether his chosen ones are dyed-in-the-wool MAGA disciples or more electable centrists, Trump’s touch remains as transformative as ever — like Midas with a Twitter account.
