Staff Reports
In a political climate where every election feels like the stakes couldn’t be higher, Pennsylvania remains the elusive prize for GOP candidates. However, one pollster is stirring the pot, suggesting that Donald Trump could once again defy the odds in the Keystone State. As the most accurate pollster from 2020, there’s reason to believe that this time around, things might be leaning in Trump’s favor—if only slightly.
Historically, Pennsylvania has been a tricky battleground for Republicans. Since 1988, only Trump managed to snag the state’s electoral votes in 2016. Past polling failures have left many scratching their heads, as they repeatedly underestimated Trump’s support, particularly among voters without college degrees, who showed up for him in droves. A smattering of excuses floated around the polling community then and even after Trump’s performance in 2020 when concerns about accuracy reached fever pitch—whether from undergraduate underrepresentation or because conservative voters were playing hide-and-seek with polling calls.
RealClearPolitics No Toss Up map now shows Trump in the Lead. The latest polls in Pennsylvania have turned in his favor. pic.twitter.com/UboYXU7s0V
— Joseph Poulose (@jpoulose) September 30, 2024
The latest data reveals that Trump is leading by three points in Pennsylvania despite this poll being heavily tilted toward Democrats. According to AtlasIntel, the pollster that nailed it last time around, this positive news for Trump comes even when 8.4% more of the sampled voters were registered Democrats. This means he’s outperforming expectations while pulling from the blue-collar workers that polls often overlook.
The demographics show troubling signs for Democrats despite the party’s currently favorable registration numbers. While Democrats account for 44% of registered voters, their hold is dwindling, slipping from a robust 51.2% in 2009. Meanwhile, Republicans are creeping up to 40.2%, and third-party registrations have risen, indicating a growing discontent with the Democrat establishment. This shift paints a picture of a potential surprise synergy for Trumpists as the electorate becomes even more fragmented.
Analysis from the poll indicates a significant disparity in education levels as well. Only 37.4% of Pennsylvanians aged 25 and older hold a college degree, yet a hefty 53% of those surveyed in the poll possess one. This could explain the skewed results—college graduates tend to vote in higher numbers, making the overwhelming Democrat lean of the poll an even tougher pill for Democrats to swallow.
Ultimately, this means that despite Democrats allegedly holding an 8.4-point advantage in this poll, their voter registration edge is a mere 3.8 points. With key demographics likely undersampled and the possibility that non-college graduates are being overlooked, the numbers could bode well for Trump and his supporters as November approaches. Time will tell if Trump can once again beat the Philadelphia ballot operation, but these numbers definitely instill a glimmer of hope for those looking to keep Pennsylvania red.
