Staff Reports
The political scene has taken a delightful turn as former President Donald Trump appears to be putting the pedal to the metal, leaving Vice President Kamala Harris in his rearview mirror, at least according to the latest polling from the New York Times and Siena College. In a head-to-head showdown, Trump emerges with a slim yet promising one-point lead, racking up 48 percent of the vote while Harris can only manage 47 percent. When the full cast of party candidates steps onto the stage, Trump’s lead ticks up to two points, signaling that even the mainstream media might be feeling the heat of the Trump train.
It’s clear that voter enthusiasm plays a significant role in this electoral drama—or should it be termed “comedy”? A staggering 97 percent of Trump’s 2020 supporters have pledged their undying loyalty, signaling that turning back to the former president is more popular than a double cheeseburger at a tailgate party. Meanwhile, Harris retains a decent chunk of support among Biden voters, with 92 percent saying they intend to stick with her. But with an additional six percent defecting from her camp, it’s hard to ignore the growing cracks in her base.
🇺🇲 National poll by NYT/Siena crosstabs
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 47%
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Full Ballot
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
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Crosstabs
• Biden 2020 voters: Harris 92-6%
• Trump 2020 voters: Trump 97-2%
• Did not vote in 2020: Trump 49-40%
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• Men:… pic.twitter.com/jtPBwxRIBq— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 8, 2024
Digging deeper into voter demographics offers a peek into the ongoing gender gap. Trump commands an impressive 56 percent among men, while Harris can only muster a meager 39 percent. Surprise, surprise. Among women, the numbers are somewhat mixed; Harris leads with 53 percent, as Trump lags at 42 percent. It’s safe to say that when it comes to gender dynamics, these two candidates could create their own soap opera.
What’s particularly striking is the support for Trump among those who sat out the 2020 election; he enjoys a commanding nine-point advantage here. This suggests that a significant number of Americans who might have been sitting on the sidelines during the last election have decided to jump into the political fray, and they seem to be backing Trump. Meanwhile, Harris is seeing her once-dominant grip on younger voters loosening. Although she retains a slight lead among those aged 18 to 29, her numbers compared to President Biden’s last cycle show a troubling decline.
Election forecaster Nate Silver’s latest predictions add a cherry on top of Trump’s polling success. Silver now gives Trump a robust 60.1 percent chance of clinching the Electoral College, a remarkable turnaround from just weeks ago when Harris was strutting around with a 53.5 percent edge. It appears the dynamics of this election are shifting beneath the surface, and Trump’s momentum could turn the campaign into quite the surprising saga as the clock runs down to November.
