Staff Reports
The most recent polling from RealClearPolitics paints an interesting picture in the race for the White House, with Vice President Kamala Harris barely edging out former President Donald Trump by an astonishingly slim margin, just one-tenth of one percentage point. In a multi-candidate field, Trump was also noted to have a microscopic lead. Funny how these margins tend to appear when the establishment is trying to convince Americans that a Biden-Harris reelection is in the cards. However, in the grand game of electoral politics, Trump was far from finished.
Trump’s campaign didn’t just make headlines with his results—it made history, breaking the two-decade drought for GOP nominees by winning the popular vote with a margin of over one-and-a-half percentage points and a staggering number of votes. Picture that—millions of Americans voiced their approval of Trump, while Harris’ support seemed to dwindle in comparison. The state-level averages from RCP hinted that he could snag a whopping 287 Electoral College votes, which is quite the feat considering Harris was projected to lead in states like Michigan and Wisconsin. In the end, those predictions proved conservative: Trump dominated swing states, amassing an impressive 312 electoral votes.
A polling firm that accurately foresaw this outcome was JL Partners, based out of both the UK and the US. Scarlett Maguire, a director at JL Partners, articulated how her firm’s data proved correct when many others fell flat. Other pollsters, particularly Ann Selzer, failed to accurately gauge the reality on the ground due to outdated methods that leaned toward older, liberal demographics. Meanwhile, JL Partners stayed true to their data, leading to predictions that closely mirrored the actual result of the election. Maguire’s thoughts echoed a critical theme: the Harris campaign’s fixation on reproductive rights significantly alienated voters, even those within the female demographic.
Revealed: British Pollster Who Nailed the US Election Explains How Her Team Did It
https://t.co/uOQTTnq113— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) December 12, 2024
As a bonus, Maguire joined a popular talk show recently to delve deeper into her organization’s winning methodologies, shedding light on how qualitative and quantitative data could coexist. Voters in swing states were not just numbers; they were real individuals sharing their perspectives, and JL Partners knew better than to ignore them. Recognizing this divergence in polling strategies could be vital for lesser-known pollsters looking to redeem themselves in future elections.
On a broader note regarding polling perceptions, there is a palpable shift in confidence toward Trump post-election. Unlike prior years where he never seemed to shake the post-election jitters, recent data indicates a favorable transition. A CNN poll highlights that more Americans trust Trump’s approach to critical issues than they have in years, pointing to a wave of optimism building momentum as Inauguration Day approaches. There’s definitely a buzz in the air, hinting that big changes are on the horizon when Trump takes office on January 20th. The future could be brighter than ever for conservative Americans.
