Staff Reports
Trump’s trajectory in Pennsylvania shows that he could very well be the comeback kid in American politics. For those keeping score, the former president claimed the Keystone State in 2016, lost it by a hair in 2020, but today—hold onto those hats—he’s officially outpacing where he stood in both previous campaigns according to the latest state polling from RealClearPolitics.
The RCP average reveals something noteworthy: Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a razor-thin margin of 0.2 points. While it might not seem like much, for a state that has swung as violently as a pendulum in recent years, this lead is a signal that could mean a whole lot come Election Day. A little historical context shows just how impressive this performance is—back in 2016, Trump was trailing Hillary Clinton by a daunting 9.4 points at this time. Not only did he rally back to win the state by a slick 0.7 points, but now he’s polling nearly 9.6 points better than he was during that pre-election panic.
BREAKING: Former President Trump is polling significantly better in Pennsylvania than he did against both Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016, according to RCP. pic.twitter.com/oTEYHijqxB
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) October 9, 2024
Fast forward to 2020, and the situation looked even grimmer for Trump, who was down 7.1 points against Joe Biden, a gap that he ultimately lost by just 1.2 points. Today, however, he’s not just making up ground, he’s surpassing his previous showings by 7.3 points. This is the kind of performance that would make some Democrats sweat—especially since Trump has managed to hold the lead in Pennsylvania’s polling longer than Harris has since announcing her own campaign.
There’s a certain campy irony here when you consider how staunchly engaged Trump supporters remain while the sitting vice president’s popularity continues to ebb. The RealClearPolitics averages have been surprisingly reliable, managing to mirror the final outcomes in both 2016 and 2020 quite closely. They pegged Biden’s win at 1.2 points and seamlessly predicted Hillary’s victory by 1.9 points—until Trump proved them wrong.
All signs suggest that if the RCP reports a slight edge for Trump, it likely means something good for him. The chatter in political circles suggests that Harris’s camp is feeling more than a little anxious about Pennsylvania, while Trump’s camp is riding a wave of optimism. If history is any teacher, the final weeks of a campaign have a funny way of swinging towards the candidate who can close the deal—something Trump has shown he’s adept at doing.
The latest numbers indicate that the political landscape in Pennsylvania is shifting, and if Trump can keep this momentum, he may just have the last laugh come November. It’s difficult to ignore the sense that something’s brewing under the surface in this pivotal swing state, something that would make any Democrat reconsider their endorsements. As the campaign unfolds, one thing becomes clear: Trump is setting himself up to challenge the narrative that was written in the aftermath of 2020.
