Staff Reports
The prospect of Israel and Syria coming to some miraculous understanding would make for a gripping soap opera, but in reality, it’s less “Will they or won’t they?” and more “Who cares?” Despite the decades of bickering and bloodshed, new reports suggest that the United States and the United Arab Emirates are considering lifting sanctions on Syria, provided that Bashar al-Assad can somehow tear himself away from Iran and its unruly sidekick, Hezbollah. While it’s hard to imagine Assad breaking up with his Iranian partner like a bad high school romance, the stakes are high with increased rebel activity in Syria throwing a wrench in everyone’s plans.
In the wake of recent skirmishes that saw Syrian rebels briefly poking around Aleppo — a name either revered for ancient history or ridiculed for its constant chaos — it seems the U.S. and UAE might feel the pressure to strike while the iron is hot. The hope is that renewed conflict will drive a wedge between Assad and Iran. However, odds seem good that instead of coming to his senses, Assad might think, “What’s next for me?” as Iran’s support has been more or less a lifeline since his domestic quandaries began back in 2011.
The situation is classic Middle East drama: it’s all about alliances. Assad, ever the pragmatic leader, has relied heavily on Iranian and Russian support, treating Syria like a well-tended garden he shares with his two friends—although it seems he might have forgotten to keep up with the weeding. Russia has made itself comfortable as a domineering neighbor who doesn’t really help with the heavy lifting while Iran, inspired by a bizarre interpretation of friendship, has utilized Syria as a staging ground for its notorious highway of terror to Lebanon.
However, the tides seem to be changing. With Iran scrambling for cover under tightening U.S. sanctions and Russia effectively preoccupied with a military pickle in Ukraine, their rescue efforts for Assad may be more limited than previously thought. If anything, Assad’s camp could soon find itself more isolated than ever, leading him to reconsider the U.S.-UAE proposal — if he’s paying attention, that is.
Strange Bedfellows: Time for Israel and Syria to Bury the Hatchet? https://t.co/5mMCW5pJJ6
— Brett Murphy (PatriotPointman) (@PatriotPointman) December 4, 2024
Yet, the potential for a regime shift in Syria could have unintended consequences for Israel, which knows all too well that a destabilized Syria might not yield a pleasant alternative. While Assad is a familiar adversary, a weakened state could open a Pandora’s box, inviting even more hostile entities to set up shop in the neighborhood. A friend of Hezbollah is a friend of none, and a friend of ISIS is even more problematic.
However, the outgoing Biden administration might cling to dreams of a diplomatic win, though history suggests that token negotiations seldom solve the deep-rooted issues of this volatile region. The idea that lifting sanctions could be turned into a win without causing tremendous fallout is about as sound as trying to balance an elephant on a tightrope. Maybe it would take a seasoned negotiator like Trump to bring some common sense back to the table, but one has to wonder if it’s too late for even side deals in a neighborhood where the stakes are higher than a potluck dinner.
