Staff ReportsThe congressional GOP faces a potentially grim fate unless it hitches its wagon to the former president and somehow resuscitates the economy. The historical trend known as “surge and decline” looms ominously on the horizon, ready to pounce like a hungry jackal on a wounded animal. It’s gone on long enough that one has to wonder if political consultants have grown tired of changing their PowerPoint presentations to explain the same sad script.
It all starts with the “surge,” which kicks off with the presidential victories. Amidst all the victorious trumpeting, the electoral landscape often transforms into a veritable playground for the party of the winning president. Much like fans cheering wildly as their team rallies after a touchdown, Democratic candidates have historically flooded into Congress on the coattails of a president, which is an amusing metaphor rooted in 400 years of language evolution. The surge is real and has statistical backing; historical data indicates that for every presidential win, the victor’s party typically gleans around 26 to 30 House seats, demonstrating that winning begets winning.
Trump says he has 94% support from the GOP.
No. He has between 60% to 80% support, as evidenced by primary elections.
But he’ll get to 100%, because soon only MAGA cultists will remain in the GOP.
And that shrunken party can’t win elections.
— Peter Henlein (@SwissWatchGuy) March 9, 2024
But then comes the inevitable “decline.” In the midterm elections, it turns out the thrill of victory fades quicker than a summer blockbuster. The party that holds the White House usually sees its congressional representation dwindle in those off years. This phenomenon can be explained, in part, by the absence of a charismatic presidential candidate to rally the troops. The numbers are clear: for every percentage point a president wins by, the opposing congressional party usually garners an extra three seats. So, if Trump secured about 49.9% of the vote, the GOP could be looking at shedding roughly five of its 220 seats by 2026. Given the tenuous hold the Republicans have on Congress, losing seats is akin to handing the opposing team a victory on a silver platter.
Fear not, Republicans can take solace in a few necessary steps to dodge catastrophe. Presidential approval ratings and economic health become paramount. A popular president can save his party from the typical midterm massacre. For every percentage point improvement in the president’s popularity, the party can typically secure about one additional House seat. Likewise, a flourishing economy can rescue two more seats. If the GOP wants to dance with destiny, it better hope that Trump becomes a household favorite and the economy flourishes beyond the wildest dreams of a 1980s businessman.
Yet, the wild card remains: individual members of Congress may decide to throw caution to the wind and disassociate themselves from an unpopular president. But this strategy makes about as much sense as bringing a rubber knife to a gunfight. The Democrats found that out the hard way under Biden’s presidency—when party members tried to distance themselves from the stain of his unpopularity only to fall flat on their faces. If Trump remains in favor, there aren’t any cringeworthy moves to execute, but should he falter, the GOP is left scurrying like rats off a sinking ship.
In essence, Republicans must either boost Trump’s spotlight shine and nurture economic prosperity or prepare to watch their hard-earned congressional control slip through their fingers. It’s a classic case of putting their money where their mouth is; the GOP could end up with eggs on their faces, or they could start cooking up some electoral victories. The choice is theirs, and history stands as a relentless watchdog, ready to hold them accountable.
