Staff Reports
Guatemala’s President Bernardo Arévalo is gearing up for some interesting times ahead as he prepares for the unmistakable storm of immigration discussions that President-elect Donald Trump is likely to bring. After all, anyone who’s been tuning into the political circus knows that when it comes to immigration, Trump doesn’t pull punches. He’s already stirred the pot, suggesting tariffs that could weigh heavily on the U.S.’s biggest trading partners and throwing around terms like mass deportations that are sending shockwaves throughout Central America, especially Guatemala.
In a strikingly cheerful twist – because who doesn’t love a good political plot twist? – Arévalo believes that Guatemala holds a coveted status as one of America’s “few trusted partners” in Latin America. He promoted his country’s record in drug seizures, boasting a figure that is more than double what it was last year, as if to say, “North America, we’ve got your back!” But one can’t help but wonder how long that enthusiasm will last once Trump starts taking a sledgehammer to immigration policy. After all, nobody wants to ruffle feathers when a former reality TV star is in charge.
This is what happens when the United States has a real leader(Trump)
Trump's leverage as a leader shows the U.S. as a superpower, compelling negotiations. Greenland's PM Mute Egede: "We are ready to talk."pic.twitter.com/O9rZDkTFih
— CALI🇺🇸 (@CALI4AZ) January 11, 2025
During Biden’s administration, discussions about Guatemala were centered around corruption that supposedly fueled mass emigration. Now, with Trump returning to the White House, the game may change. Immigration policy during Trump’s first term was characterized by an “open the floodgates and see what happens” approach when it came to negotiating with Central American countries. Agreements sprawled across the landscape, promising to keep potential asylum seekers far away from the U.S. border, all while ignoring the deep-rooted problems that drove them to the brink.
Arévalo is already putting together some “alternative proposals” regarding immigration that he hopes to bring to the negotiating table, but a graphic reality looms over him. The prospect of mass deportations could wreak havoc on the Guatemalan economy, where remittances sent back home by migrants represent a staggering 20% of the GDP. In other words, Trump holds significant influence over how many Guatemalans might still have jobs—or not. The last thing anyone needs is for Trump to take out the proverbial economic wrecking ball.
In the face of likely deportation, the Guatemalan government is taking a proactive approach, enhancing resources for its consulates in the U.S. and even developing a phone application to assist migrants in navigating potential enforcement raids. It’s a tech-savvy move, but one must ask if they could instead focus on creating jobs so that people wouldn’t feel the need to risk it all to flee. Does anyone else find it a tad disheartening when leaders are brainstorming ways to manage fallout from deportation rather than tackling the root causes of their citizens’ migration?
As Guatemala finds itself in a precarious position, President Arévalo has reached out to Mexico’s leaders about developing their border regions. Employing economic development as a means to curb the migration crisis is hardly a novel idea, but it might just be the ticket to keeping communities intact. Unfortunately, until there’s a real solution that addresses the fundamental issues—like corruption and lack of opportunity—both nations might just be putting a band-aid on a gushing wound. Ultimately, the real test will be navigating relations with an administration that has proven to be a wildcard; Guatemala’s future and economy hang in the balance.
