Staff Reports
Kamala Harris must be feeling the heat as new polling data reveals a bleak outlook for her prospects in the upcoming election. Recent surveys from reputable firms like Insider Advantage and the Trafalgar Group show former President Trump leading in crucial swing states. Unlike the plethora of questionable polls that flood the airwaves—often skewed to favor Democrats—these results are drawing attention and not the kind of attention Harris is hoping for.
Trafalgar and Insider Advantage have established themselves as reliable indicators in the past, and their latest findings show Trump ahead in all swing states by at least one point, with a notable lead of 2.2 points in Pennsylvania and Michigan. This growing support for Trump in a state that has historically leaned Democratic is certainly sending shivers down the spines of Harris and her party cohorts. As if the winds of change weren’t strong enough, Atlas Intel also reported Trump leading in five out of seven swing states, putting Harris and her team on alert, especially since a Democratic Congressman from Michigan has already acknowledged the struggles Harris faces there.
Things don’t get any better for Harris with Ipsos showing Trump up by a single point across the same swing states. Given that Ipsos has traditionally leaned left, this must be particularly alarming for the Democrats as they realize that even their usual polling favorites are veering toward Trump. The reality is sinking in: Harris’s chances are looking dim, and her campaign must be scrambling to contain the fallout.
New Swing State Polling Data and Important Data Point to Big Trouble for Harris https://t.co/ImQ3IOKHJF
— Michael J. Fell (@MichaelJFell) October 4, 2024
Perhaps most startling of all is the revelation about young voters, a demographic that Democrats typically assume will rally to their side. A recent NYT/Siena poll showed Trump tied with Harris among voters aged 18-29 at 45 percent each. This is a staggering reversal from the 2020 election, when Biden commanded a 61 to 37 margin among this same group, representing a dramatic 24-point swing toward Trump. This shift among younger voters indicates a growing disillusionment with the Democratic Party and reinforces the sense that Harris’s team should be panicking.
Experts like Rich Baris, of Big Data Poll, have suggested that if these numbers are even close to accurate, it would spell doom for Harris. He pointed out the common trend of underreporting Trump’s support, particularly among white and senior voters in America’s heartland. No wonder Harris seems desperate for a debate; she’s probably counting on a defining moment to alter her campaign’s trajectory. However, it seems the Democrats are grappling with a political earthquake, and Harris’s cries for another debate might just be the desperate moves of a candidate realizing the ground beneath her is shifting.
