Staff Reports
The Democrats are at it again, riding the hype train of enthusiasm as Vice President Kamala Harris throws her hat into the presidential ring. This time around, they are practically giddy about their chances, especially after seeing a poll from Reuters showing Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 44-42%. It’s almost as if they’ve forgotten that polls are merely snapshots, and there’s still quite the race ahead.
Despite the Democratic party’s celebratory antics and their ear-to-ear grins over polling results, they’re overlooking a critical detail: Trump is still clobbering Harris in the vital swing states sans the confetti and streamers. Polling from Emerson College indicates that in pivotal battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Trump continues to hold a solid lead or is neck-and-neck with Harris. This means the Democrats might want to hold off on those victory parties – for now.
Despite the Massive Hype, Trump Still Leads in Vital Swing State Polls https://t.co/6rvhAzLhEI
— Biff Smallberries (@B_Smallberries) July 25, 2024
In Arizona, Trump is basking in a 49% approval rating compared to Harris’s 44%. Over in Georgia, Trump boasts 48%, while Harris trails closely at 46%. The trend continues in Michigan, with Trump leading 46% to Harris’s 45%, and in Pennsylvania, it’s 48% for Trump and 46% for Harris. The only place where the numbers are tied is in Wisconsin, where both candidates sit at 47%. Not exactly a triumphant roar from the Democratic camp, despite their premature celebrations.
The Democrats can pat themselves on the back for Harris’s marginal improvement from last time, but how sustainable is that jubilation? As the election cycle heats up and the Trump campaign starts peeling back the layers of who Harris really is, those initial sparks of enthusiasm might fizzle out. These swing states are essential for capturing the presidency, and Harris will need more than just a fleeting wave of excitement to secure them.
While the Biden camp is basking in claims of being close to a victory, they seem to ignore the nitty-gritty. Harris remains eerily quiet on major issues such as inflation and border security. Instead, expect a heavy focus on abortion, a topic that bites back for many voters, particularly in swing states. And although the campaign wheel keeps spinning with talk of multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes, it all hinges on grabbing wins in critical states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—an uphill battle for Harris, given current sentiments.
Potential vice presidential picks have entered the conversation, too, with speculation swirling around prominent figures like North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly. However, what swing state voters ultimately crave is a connection to someone they know—someone from home. Polls reveal that Arizonans fancy Kelly, while Michiganders lean towards their governor, Gretchen Whitmer, and a sizeable portion of Pennsylvanians prefer their own governor, Josh Shapiro.
All said and done, when it comes time for voters to assess Harris’s record as vice president and the previous campaign shenanigans in 2020, Trump’s odds might look pretty good. The Democrats can keep dreaming about those 44% numbers, but when it comes to swing states, the game is still very much on.
