Staff Reports
President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris would have Americans believe that crime is magically disappearing in the United States, shortly after they took the reins of power. However, everyday citizens seem to have a vastly different impression. A series of surveys indicate that they feel less safe now compared to previous years, particularly when measurement timeframes zero in on the Trump administration. This disconnect between official rhetoric and public sentiment is a challenging hurdle for the current administration.
Attempting to lend credence to the administration’s claims, media fact-checkers have rushed in like superheroes, insisting that crime rates are indeed on the decline. Yet, the truth is more nuanced, akin to a fine wine: it ages with the passage of time and can often leave a bitter taste. The data landscape surrounding crime is dominated by two sources: the FBI, which tracks reported crimes, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), which canvasses residents about their experiences with crime—both reported and unreported.
New analysis shows a major drop in violent crime in major U.S. cities this year, according to Axios.
Former United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development @JulianCastro joins @ChrisJansing to discuss how VP Harris could capitalize on these findings for her campaign. pic.twitter.com/7Of9pf1EDC
— MSNBC Reports (@MSNBC_reports) August 12, 2024
The FBI reports a shiny decrease in overall crime since the pandemic peak, but analysts like John R. Lott Jr. are crying foul. He argues that the BJS is the gold standard in measuring crime trends, pointing to its National Crime Victimization Survey as revealing an increase in violent crime under Biden’s watch. The numbers tell a different story: 23.5 victims per 1,000 people reported violent crime in 2022, a noticeable uptick from 16.5 the prior year. Property crimes also witnessed a surge, proving that the statistics aren’t aligning with the White House’s optimistic narrative.
In the cozy yet complicated world of crime statistics, Biden and Harris latch onto the FBI’s findings while omitting the significant dissatisfaction evident in BJS results. While the FBI’s data indicates a drop in murders and some other violent offenses, citizens are left feeling uneasy. The common assumption among many is that declining arrests—down from 44% to a mere 20% for violent crimes—should cue a spike in perceived crime. Why report incidents to the police if it feels futile? It’s a conundrum, especially when 911 operators suggest folks sidle over to the non-emergency line—how many are left feeling unheard?
Of course, the Biden administration celebrates the apparent drop in reported crimes like a kid who just aced a math test, yet it’s crucial to recognize that murder is one crime that generally gets recorded, and the FBI’s numbers suggesting a decline in murders stand in stark contradiction. Despite this, calls for citizen vigilance persist. Everyone knows that high-profile events like mass shootings garner attention, while smaller, everyday crimes often slip under the radar.
On the political front, Biden’s assertions encounter skepticism and public backlash, as shown in escalating poll numbers reflecting rising crime concerns. Citizens observe the panoply of lockboxes in drugstores and the prevalence of security personnel as visible manifestations of crime trends in their communities. As citizen intuition and common sense collide with selective statistics, it becomes readily apparent that people trust their experience over the administration’s assurances. Voters appear increasingly skeptical of official narratives, drawing upon their firsthand observation of the changing urban landscape.
As this debate rages on, the brunt of responsibility remains on politicians to navigate perceptions versus reality. But with public concern over crime firmly on the rise, the Biden administration is left clutching at straws in an increasingly hostile environment. The gap between what citizens are feeling and what low statistics indicate is glaringly wide, leaving many to wonder who will truly take action to restore safety and security in their lives.
