Staff Reports
Last week, the political commentators were buzzing about a recent New York Times poll that showed President Joe Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five out of six battleground states. The most significant finding in the poll was Trump’s strong lead (59-37) on the issue that voters care about the most: the state of the US economy. A CBS News poll also showed that more voters believed their personal finances would be better off if Trump returned to power. As additional polling results have come in, they have confirmed these findings.
Here's How Biden Is Faring in Every Swing State Right Nowhttps://t.co/RCPNn6CWQu
— BuddySaysNet (@BuddyWalkerDA) November 13, 2023
According to a poll by Emerson, Trump leads in four out of the six states tested and is tied in Wisconsin, with a narrow trailing in Michigan. Another poll by Bloomberg showed Trump leading in all the states tested except for a tie in Michigan. This Bloomberg survey also tested the impact of third-party options, which had little effect on the results. What is significant is that Trump is dominating the ‘better off’ economic questions across the seven battlegrounds polled by Bloomberg. The economy is by far the most important issue for these voters.
When all these polls are taken together, it becomes quite plausible that if there were a rematch between Biden and Trump in the near future, Trump would have a strong chance of winning. However, there are two important caveats. Firstly, a year is a long time in politics, and things can change. Secondly, other polls have shown that Trump is not necessarily the strongest candidate for Republicans against Biden. In a recent Marquette poll of Wisconsin, Trump was competitive with Biden but not the strongest matchup for Republicans.
It is worth noting that public polling often overestimated Biden’s margin in Wisconsin in the 2020 election. In the end, Trump lost by less than one point, while Marquette’s final survey had him losing by five points. This raises questions about the accuracy of polling.
Despite the favorable poll numbers for Trump, it is difficult to reconcile these findings with the recent election results that saw Democrats experiencing victories. The New York Times suggests that there is no contradiction between the polling and election results, arguing that Democrats have particular strength among the most highly engaged voters who dominate low-turnout elections. On the other hand, Trump’s strength lies with less engaged voters who only turn out for presidential races. This dynamic could be a challenge for Biden heading into 2024.
It is becoming increasingly clear that both major parties would be taking a risky gamble by sticking with their frontrunners in the next election. The political landscape is still unpredictable, and anything can happen.
