Staff Reports
Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria is experiencing a spectacular crash reminiscent of a poorly executed circus act—complete with the big top coming down faster than anyone could have foreseen. Despite whispers among experts that the tyrant’s hold on power was shaky, the regime’s collapse unfolded much more rapidly than the pundits anticipated. One might say it’s a classic case of “lost the plot” for the Assad family, who have held onto their power for more than five decades, they appear to have underestimated just how abandoned they were by their allies.
For over a decade, Assad relied heavily on his buddies in Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia to keep his regime afloat during the civil war. But when new threats emerged in late November, it was as if his friends had decided to take a permanent vacation. Iran and Hezbollah were too preoccupied, and even Moscow seemed to leave Assad hanging. The tousled dictator’s only comfort was the notion that he could seek refuge in Russia, which speaks volumes about the loyalty of his so-called allies.
The U.S. intelligence community has made assessing a military’s “will to fight” an art form, although it resembles more of a carnival game due to its lack of precision. Morale, paychecks, and an alarming realization that there wouldn’t be any backup from their comrades likely resulted in Assad’s underwhelming troops becoming more of a subplot than a leading character in this dire drama. When the supposed “strongman” of Syria couldn’t even keep his own forces motivated, the writing was clearly on the wall—or perhaps more accurately, the bottom of the barrel.
While the Assad regime fell apart faster than a cheap tent in a thunderstorm, the opposition didn’t coalesce overnight. Led by Hayat Tahrir al Sham, a group best described as a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, they successfully exploited Assad’s vulnerabilities to mount significant pressure. A political operative with a flair for the dramatic, Bassam Al Kuwatli noted there was a chance for the regime to survive, but no one really expected a swift demise. In the world of political maneuvers, this coup is practically an express train.
Warning signs were there that Assad’s grip in Syria was faltering https://t.co/BWbhsK49mD
— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) December 10, 2024
In a futile attempt to revitalize his crumbling forces, Assad made the grand gesture of promising a 50% pay hike to soldiers. However, by then, the morale among his troops was so depleted that no amount of extra cash could replace their sense of urgency or desire to fight for a sinking ship. As cities such as Aleppo, Hama, and Homs slipped through his fingers like sand, it became painfully obvious that neither Hezbollah, Iran, nor Russia could swoop in for a rescue. Their own military misadventures had rendered them incapable of coming to Assad’s aid. Biden’s administration even highlighted this as a spectacular failure of Assad’s former allies, showcasing the complex geopolitical landscape that humbles dictators and clarifies the standing of less than noble alliances.
While the fallout is reaching a dramatic crescendo, it also reminds everyone of the risks associated with taking sides in foreign conflicts where loyalties shift like the wind. With Iran’s strategic aspirations hanging by a thread, and its land route to Hezbollah potentially severed, the implications of Assad’s collapse extend far beyond Syria. Observers are left to ponder what this swift collapse signifies for future international maneuvers, especially as priorities shift in the East, leaving global powerhouses reevaluating their next moves. In this twisted tale of power, the lesson is clear: alliances can come cheap, but when the moment of truth arrives, being popular in the neighborhood isn’t enough to save a faltering regime.
