Staff Reports
The numbers are in, and Trump’s Iowa lead is more impressive than anyone could’ve predicted. It’s no shocker that Trump dominates the Hawkeye State; after all, he cruised to victory in 2016 and 2020. But the latest Des Moines Register poll has everyone’s jaws dropped. Trump’s not just ahead—he’s leading by a staggering 18 points, with a commanding 50% to Biden’s anemic 32%, while RFK Jr. scrapes by with 9%. If these figures are even remotely accurate, Democrats should be running scared. Once a launchpad for Obama’s successful campaigns, Iowa has firmly planted itself in the red column.
#New General Election Poll – Iowa
🔴 Trump 50%
🔵 Biden 32%
🟡 Kennedy 9%Selzer #A+ – 632 LV – 6/14
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 17, 2024
Let’s get real: Trump’s 50% isn’t newsworthy on its own. In 2020, he took Iowa with 53%; in 2016, he won by over nine points. What’s eye-popping here is the margin—an 18-point lead, driven by Biden’s dismal performance. Biden’s got the lowest approval ratings seen in ages for a sitting president, languishing in the low 30s. So before Democrats call this an outlier, let’s remember that the Des Moines Register/Selzer poll is the gold standard of Iowa polling. They’ve been more accurate than their competitors, consistently nailing how Trump performs every election cycle.
👀 That Iowa poll is definitely a wow, and can’t be easily dismissed as a weird outlier: pic.twitter.com/bOV0OaqTUj
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 17, 2024
Case in point: back in 2016, Des Moines Register/Selzer had Trump up seven points in their final poll—a figure that shocked many, as other pollsters had Clinton ahead. Trump ended up winning Iowa by over nine points. Fast forward to 2020, and they were the only ones close, predicting a Trump lead of seven points, while others depicted a tighter race. Trump, again, outperformed all expectations. Simply put, if Selzer says Trump’s up big, then Trump’s up big. Iowa knows its man, and it’s clearly not Joe Biden.
If Trump’s monumental Iowa lead holds, this isn’t just bad news for Democrats in Iowa—it’s a five-alarm fire in the entire Upper Midwest. Trump’s internal data even has him slightly ahead in Minnesota, a state that hasn’t gone Republican since 1972, when Biden first slithered into the Senate. If Iowa’s numbers are any indicator, states like Minnesota could very well flip. Other polls already show Trump ahead or neck-and-neck in critical swing states.
In summary, Trump leads in six polled states, leaving Democrats precarious. With battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Arizona showing Trump leads, it’s clear the “Biden bounce” is nothing more than a fizzle. Fasten your seatbelts, folks; the 2024 election could very well be an electoral rout reminiscent of the Reagan years. And Democrats have only themselves to blame.
