Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump continues to maintain strong support among key voter groups that were crucial to his victory in 2020, as indicated by a recent poll by The New York Times.
The poll reveals that Trump is leading President Joe Biden among Hispanic voters by a margin of 50% to 41%. Additionally, Trump holds a lead of 48% to 40% among young voters aged 18-29. This data starkly contrasts with the 2020 CNN exit poll, which showed Biden winning Hispanic voters by a sizeable margin of 65% to 32%, and also leading among young voters aged 18-24 by 34 points. Even among voters aged 25 to 29, Biden only surpassed Trump by 11 points.
Among likely voters, Trump currently leads Biden by 49% to 43%, with his lead expanding to eight points among registered voters in the NYT poll. It’s noteworthy that Trump had faced a popular vote deficit in 2020, securing 46.86% compared to Biden’s 51.31%.
Crosstabs on NYT poll have Biden losing young voters and Hispanic voters pic.twitter.com/0yogfgdDCj
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) July 3, 2024
Recent criticisms have been directed at Biden following his performance in the latest debate with Trump, where he reportedly froze multiple times and made verbal gaffes. Democratic Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas has even publicly called for Biden to reconsider his reelection bid.
The RealClearPolling average of polls indicates that Biden is trailing Trump by 2.5% in a national head-to-head matchup. When independent candidates Cornel West, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are factored in, Trump’s lead grows to 4.2%. This marks a significant shift from July 3, 2020, when Biden led Trump by 8.8% in the RealClearPolitics average.
Concerns surrounding Biden’s age and mental fitness have been persistent throughout his presidency, especially highlighted by instances where he claimed to have spoken with deceased individuals. The President’s multiple falls and accidents, such as mistakenly referencing deceased Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski of Indiana, have raised questions about his ability to lead the country effectively.
In light of these developments and shifting poll numbers, it appears that Trump’s strong showing among key voter demographics and Biden’s perceived vulnerabilities could have significant implications for the upcoming election cycle.
