Staff Reports
Former President Donald Trump appears to be riding a wave of momentum that would make any fireworks display seem lacking in comparison. A newly released poll indicates that Trump’s chances of ousting Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have surged by ten points, reminiscent of a phoenix rising from political ashes. A model from J.L. Partners suggests that since the presidential debate, Trump has seen a boost of four points, enough to conjure thoughts of victory lap parties and potential new golf memberships.
The J.L. Partners model, a concoction of historical data and economic indicators, forecasts Trump’s likelihood of winning the Electoral College with a sense of optimism that has average voters nodding their heads. A staggering 8,000 probabilities were produced analyzing each candidate’s potential to win various states, and surprise, surprise—most fall in Trump’s favor. While Harris might snag the popular vote, her grip on historically blue swing states is loosening, making room for Trump to squeeze through with over 50 percent odds of victory across different scenarios.
States like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are predicted to go red, giving Trump a 55.2 percent shot at triumph while Harris lingers at 44.6 percent, waiting for a miracle that seems less likely by the day. Data scientist Callum Hunter from J.L. Partners has tossed a bucket of reality on Harris, insinuating that her initial surge is reminiscent of a sugar high that’s now subsiding. If September was her peak, it sounds as if the slope is sloping downwards, and Harris seems ill-prepared for the descent.
Election Model Shows Trump 55 Times More Likely Than Harris of Winning In November https://t.co/vCJaTmtBSF pic.twitter.com/rmS5xbCFKC
— Brett Murphy (@BrettMurphyX) September 26, 2024
Polling from another source, Prolific, highlights that Trump’s loyal base isn’t shortening anytime soon, even after the recent, questionable “misfortunes” involving his safety. A whopping 90 percent of Republican voters remain ready to back Trump, an uptick that can only signal a rallying cry that resonates across the party lines. In these tumultuous times, it appears that GOP voters aren’t merely standing behind Trump; they’re doubling down.
As both candidates firm up their support, the real theater lies in swing state drama, particularly among young and undecided voters who hold the future in their hands. Andrew Gordon, a Senior Research Consultant at Prolific, emphasizes that the last few weeks leading to the election will determine the trajectory of the nation. With Trump on the rise and Harris seemingly teetering on the brink, it might just be time for Trump’s supporters to start crafting the perfect victory slogan—and keep the fireworks on standby for an explosive celebration come November.
