Staff ReportsThe left is in a tizzy as fresh polling indicates that former President Donald Trump might be gaining ground once again, a reminder that the 2016 and 2020 elections are still fresh in the minds of Democrats who thought they could count on easy wins. In a new survey from New York Times/Siena College, Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in several pivotal Sun Belt states—a part of the electoral map that could prove decisive. In Arizona, Trump is leading by 5 points, while in Georgia and North Carolina, his margins are similarly favorable.
The Democrats’ concern is palpable, considering Trump once fell behind in these states just a few months ago. Back in August, the same pollster had Trump trailing Harris by 5 in Arizona and 2 in North Carolina. The turn of events illustrates just how quickly the political landscape can shift, raising eyebrows and heart rates among Democrats. Maintaining a steady lead in Georgia, where Trump enjoys a 4% advantage, isn’t making them feel any better either.
Trump Shows Signs of Strength in Sun Belt Battlegrounds, Polls Find https://t.co/xL8k2me7MJ
— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) September 23, 2024
While the national polling average still shows Harris ahead, the discrepancy in key states has many on the left scratching their heads. A look at history reveals that both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden had more significant leads at this same point in their respective election cycles, with Biden holding a comfortable 7.1% lead over Trump. With the former president outperforming expectations in battleground states, one can’t help but question the effectiveness of current polling methodologies, especially as the left openly worries about a potential underplay of Trump’s support.
Democrats were blindsided in the last two elections—relying on their polling data that failed to account for large swaths of unlikely voters, particularly among non-college-educated white males. It seems a hard lesson has not been fully learned; some Democrats are voicing their fears that the upcoming election might yield another surprise as Trump’s base appears both enthusiastic and prolific.
Overall, the volatility of Trump’s polling numbers compared to previous elections may have him on track for an unprecedented moment in the 2024 race: winning the popular vote. If the data turns out to be spot on, this could take the cake for the darkest of days for Democrats as they grapple with the reality that their polling craft has not improved since the shock of 2016.
