Staff Reports
In the wild world of political forecasts, it appears that former President Donald Trump is once again riding high, grabbing an impressive lead in Nate Silver’s latest 2024 election projection. Following the much-hyped ABC News presidential debate, which many suspect could be the only showdown between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris before November, Trump has shown he can weather the storm like a champion heavyweight boxer.
Initially, Harris was enjoying a brief surge of enthusiasm among Democrats after President Biden’s dramatic exit from the re-election race. But as everyone knows, Trump is not one to go quietly into the night. By early September, Silver’s model was doling out a cool 60.1% chance for Trump to win the Electoral College—a nice uptick from earlier predictions. It seems that even in the chaotic landscape of politics, Silver’s model recognized what many Americans already know: when it comes to key swing states, Trump’s influence looms large, especially in Pennsylvania.
BREAKING: Trump remains the favorite in Nate Silver election model after new polls released today
🔴 Trump: 61.6% (+23.5)
🔵 Harris: 38.1% pic.twitter.com/ABKqASyVcE— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 11, 2024
Flash forward to Wednesday when Silver dropped his first post-debate forecast, and what a doozy it was. While the post-debate polling data was still warming up, early indicators suggested that many viewers, including undecided voters, seemed to think Trump won the debate. Silver, in a twist of fate that would make a Hollywood screenwriter proud, upgraded Trump’s chances to 61.6% of winning the Electoral College. Not stopping there, Trump is inching closer in the popular vote realm, trailing Harris just slightly—49.9% to 49%. Apparently, the narrative of a last-minute comeback is alive and well.
The ABC News debate wasn’t just a political showdown; it resembled a lumbering circus act led by moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis, who have faced heavy criticism for their evident bias. These moderators allowed Harris to slip by with a slew of verifiable falsehoods, including allegations about police deaths on January 6, all while Trump faced unwarranted interruptions and fact-checking of his own statements. Imagine trying to enjoy a meal at a nice restaurant only for the waiter to constantly tell you how terrible your choice is, even when all you wanted was a good steak.
On the abortion issue, things took a particularly bizarre turn. Harris made the ludicrous claim that Trump would sign a nationwide abortion ban, a charge Trump has flatly denied multiple times, preferring to talk about the realities of late-term abortion. Yet, Muir and Davis didn’t seem inclined to let truth get in the way of a good narrative. Following Trump’s response, Davis jumped in to assert that full-term abortions aren’t legal anywhere, conveniently ignoring the fact that some Democratic figures, including Northam, have publicly endorsed even grimmer practices regarding newly-born infants.
In summary, Trump’s resurgence in the polls indicates that, despite the smoke and mirrors of media narratives, core conservative values and sound political acumen continue to resonate with the American populace. This forecast underscores the reality that while the left may spin tales and the media leans heavily on the cheat code of bias, true leadership and integrity can still shine through. And as the debate stage flashes in neon lights, one thing is certain—the Trump train is far from derailed.
