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On Monday’s American Agenda, conservative voices warned what every thinking Republican already knows: this race for New Jersey governor comes down to turnout, plain and simple. Pundits like Bill Spadea and Rick Santorum made the right call — polls show Jack Ciattarelli within arm’s reach of victory, but only if loyal Patriots get off their couches and show up on Election Day.
The polling picture is tight, with Emerson College and other surveys finding Mikie Sherrill holding only a slim edge while Ciattarelli has closed the gap after months of Democrat-friendly headlines. Those numbers should set off alarm bells for conservatives and energize grassroots efforts: razor-thin margins are won by people, not by press releases or virtue-signaling donors.
Don’t let early-vote accounting lull you into complacency; Democrats have indeed banked more early ballots so far, but early ballots aren’t the whole story in New Jersey’s history. While Democrats have an advantage in early voting totals right now, Election Day has repeatedly favored energized Republican surges when conservatives actually turn out, and that dynamic can flip this race in a heartbeat if Republicans work.
This isn’t just theory — demographic shifts and low-information narratives make turnout everything. Passaic County and other once-solid Democratic areas are in play, and Latino and unaffiliated voters are up for grabs if GOP activists do the door-knocking and church outreach that national media refuses to cover. If Republicans treat this like another midterm comfortable prediction, they’ll deserve whatever Washington-approved outcome follows.
Let’s be clear about the math: New Jersey still has a sizable Democratic registration edge, so Ciattarelli can’t win on registration alone — he needs a movement of voters who care about taxes, schools, public safety, and common-sense government to show up in force. Conservatives should see that as a rallying cry, not an excuse to stay home; the people who defend our values must be the ones who decide the state’s next direction.
If Republicans want to flip Trenton and save New Jersey from another decade of left-wing mismanagement, they must act now — phone banks, precinct work, and Election Day muscle matter more than punditry. This is our moment to prove that grassroots America still calls the shots, and if conservatives answer the bell, Jack Ciattarelli can deliver the turnaround New Jersey desperately needs.
