Staff Reports
In the latest poll conducted by Morning Consult, former President Donald Trump is shown to be leading President Joe Biden in six crucial swing states for the 2024 presidential election. Despite facing criminal indictments on numerous state and federal felony counts, Trump currently holds a lead of several percentage points in these critical states that played a decisive role in his and Biden’s victories in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Trump’s lead in the swing states is particularly significant, given their electoral impact. The poll reveals that Trump has a nine percentage point lead in Georgia and North Carolina, a four percentage point lead in Arizona and Nevada, a three percentage point lead in Pennsylvania, and a two percentage point lead in Wisconsin. These states, with a total of 77 electoral college votes, could significantly sway the outcome of the 2024 election. According to a model by CNN, if Trump were to win all of these states, he would secure the presidency with 295 electoral votes compared to Biden’s 243.
Latest Swing-State Polling Numbers Are Outright Devastating For Bidenhttps://t.co/2mmhwAiW5a
— DC Enquirer (@DcEnquirer) November 10, 2023
The poll not only included Trump and Biden but also featured independent candidates such as environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and academic Cornel West. Kennedy, who comes from a prominent Democratic family, has been receiving between 8 and 13 percent support across the seven states, while West has garnered between 1 and 2 percent support. The emergence of viable independent candidates has been seen as a potential challenge to Biden, as they could potentially draw moderate votes away from him. Unlike Trump, who enjoys a loyal base of Republican supporters, Democrats fear that the presence of independent candidates could give Trump an advantage in the plurality-based voting system used by all states.
Democrats, including members of the Kennedy family, have actively discouraged both Kennedy and West from running, as they believe it could undermine Biden’s chances in the election. Trump and Biden’s campaigns have yet to comment on the poll. This survey was conducted between October 30 and November 7 and involved 4,922 registered voters across the United States.
