Staff Reports
The latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll — run with the Los Angeles Times — is a wake‑up call for Mayor Karen Bass and a gift for Councilmember Nithya Raman. The survey shows Raman ahead 39% to 28% among likely Los Angeles voters, with a whopping 33% still undecided. That undecided pile matters, but the numbers make one thing clear: this race just turned from sleepy incumbent defense to serious trouble for Mayor Bass.
Poll results and what they mean
The Berkeley/Times survey was conducted online with 2,150 likely city voters and was fielded Sept. 15–20. The margin of error is about ±3 percentage points. Those are solid credentials for a late‑stage poll, and they give the topline some weight: Raman leads, Bass trails, and a third of voters haven’t made up their minds. The mayor’s favorability is especially grim — roughly 28% view Mayor Bass favorably while 63% view her unfavorably — and that kind of net negative makes uphill recovery much harder than a few percentage points suggest.
Why Mayor Bass is vulnerable
This isn’t just about a bad headline or one misstep. The poll ties Bass’s poor standing to recent controversies and criticisms over her handling of major local disasters and public safety issues. When voters see a mayor with low approval, it’s not only about policy — it’s about confidence. In short: if people don’t trust your leadership when things go wrong, they are open to other options. That’s why an incumbent with supposedly the advantage of office can suddenly look like the underdog.
Raman’s advantage and the undecided voters
Councilmember Nithya Raman’s strength is concentrated where Democrats once thought they were safe: young voters and progressive circles. She has picked up influential local endorsements, including from groups on the left, and she dominates younger age cohorts in the survey. But the big story is the undecided voters — many came from the more conservative Spencer Pratt lane and remain up for grabs. Among Pratt backers who have decided, Bass leads, but most are still undecided. That mix means campaigns, turnout drives, and late messaging will determine whether this poll is a preview or an outlier.
Campaign reaction and the path forward
The Bass campaign called the poll “atypical,” criticizing online surveys and their turnout model. Fair enough — methodology matters — but dismissing a university poll days before mail ballots are sent looks defensive, not confident. For Republicans and independents watching from the sidelines, this shift should be encouraging: voters are willing to hold leadership accountable, even in a deep blue city. For Democrats, it’s a reminder that ideological splits inside their coalition can flip a race. Mayor Bass can still recover if she fixes the trust gap and energizes voters, but right now the headlines favor Raman — and that will force a last‑minute scramble.
Bottom line: this UC Berkeley poll does more than nudge the narrative — it changes it. If incumbency and party loyalty were automatic safeguards, we wouldn’t be reading a 39–28 split with a third undecided. Los Angeles voters have choices, and in a city facing real problems, polls show they’re ready to use them. That should keep everyone in the race honest — and Republicans paying attention.
