Staff Reports
The new Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times poll is a wake-up call for Mayor Karen Bass. Councilmember Nithya Raman leads by 39% to 28% among likely Los Angeles voters, with a huge 33% still undecided. This is the news peg every campaign pays attention to: a big public poll that shifts the story and forces both sides to act — fast.
Berkeley IGS / LA Times poll: Raman up, Bass in trouble
The poll sampled 2,150 likely voters online and shows an 11-point edge for Councilmember Nithya Raman, with a margin of error of about ±3 points. That’s not a private intern poll — it’s a big, reputable snapshot. Equally striking: Mayor Karen Bass’s favorability is weak (roughly 28% favorable versus 63% unfavorable), while Raman sits near even. Younger voters are breaking strongly for Raman, and the councilmember leads across much of the city. On raw numbers, this is a shift from the primary and it shifts the narrative from “close runoff” to “momentum for the challenger.”
Why the numbers matter: homelessness, public safety and undecideds
The poll didn’t happen in a vacuum. Voters name homelessness and public safety near the top of their concerns — and the city’s recent rise in the homeless count handed opponents a blunt talking point. That, plus criticism of local disaster and fire responses, helps explain Bass’s sour ratings. The huge pool of undecided voters — one third of likely voters — keeps the race unstable, but it also means time is short. Mail ballots start going out in early October, so whoever moves that undecided block first gains a real advantage.
Campaign reaction: Bass calls it an outlier, Raman smells victory
Unsurprisingly, Mayor Karen Bass’s team pushed back hard, calling the poll an outlier and saying it undercounts working‑class families, seniors and non‑English speakers. Councilmember Nithya Raman’s camp, by contrast, celebrated the result and used it as a momentum play for fundraising and endorsements. Both moves are textbook — deny bad polls, amplify good ones — but the scale of Bass’s unfavorable numbers means spin alone won’t fix the facts. If she wants to keep her job, she needs a clearer message and faster results on homelessness and public safety.
Bottom line: Bass must make her case before it’s too late
Polls aren’t destiny, but this one matters. An 11-point lead in a major public poll, combined with huge undecideds and a lopsided favorability gap, hands the challenger leverage and raises real questions about the incumbent’s standing. Mayor Karen Bass can either lean into clear, measurable fixes voters understand, or she can hope undecideds magically decide to stick with the status quo. Spoiler: hope is not a strategy. Los Angeles voters deserve leaders who answer their concerns — and right now, the numbers say they’re ready to try something else.
