Staff Reports
New numbers from the Wisconsin Elections Commission show a real drop in mail-in ballot requests this cycle. Statewide, absentee-by-mail requests are about 18% below where they were at this point four years ago. The fall is even steeper in Democratic strongholds like Madison and Milwaukee. That single snapshot is now the base of a debate: did Democrats lose enthusiasm, or are voters simply changing how they plan to cast their ballots?
What the Wisconsin absentee ballot numbers actually show
The WEC snapshot finds about 329,449 absentee-by-mail requests so far, compared with about 400,780 at the same point in the 2022 midterms. That is roughly a 71,000-ballot shortfall — about an 18% drop. In Madison the decline is roughly 29%, and in Milwaukee city it’s roughly 20%. Milwaukee and Dane counties both show double-digit drops as well.
Parties are spinning the figures — pick your favorite line
Republicans in Wisconsin are right to point out the math: fewer mail ballots in heavily Democratic areas looks a lot like softer Democratic energy. State Democrats reply that voters are “returning to pre-pandemic behavior,” and some local clerks say they’re canceling mail requests when people switch to in-person early voting. Both sides have talking points. Reality will be clearer once in-person early voting starts on Oct. 20 and officials report those totals.
Polling complicates a simple narrative
Don’t jump to a headline yet. The latest Marquette poll shows Democrats say they’re more “absolutely certain” to vote than Republicans — which undercuts a straight “Dem voters aren’t turning out” claim. At the same time, the poll shows a lot of voters view the Democratic candidate in the marquee race unfavorably. So you can have low enthusiasm for a candidate and still decent turnout intention for the party. That ambiguity is why campaign shops and reporters are watching early in-person numbers closely.
Bottom line — what Republicans should do and what to watch for
If the absentee shortfall is real enthusiasm trouble for Democrats, Republicans should smell opportunity and double down on turnout. If it’s a mode shift from mail to early in-person voting, the gap will close and the house of cards for GOP bragging will fall flat. Either way, campaign teams should stop celebrating too soon and get to work: boost voter contact, secure absentee and early-vote operations, and monitor the daily WEC updates and local clerk reports after Oct. 20.
