Staff Reports
Kevin Rudd — the man who runs the Asia Society and once ran Australia — told Bret Baier on Special Report that what keeps Beijing up at night isn’t rhetoric or sanctions alone. It’s unpredictability: the kind of swingy, off‑script leadership that makes Chinese planners nervous about misreading Washington and overreacting. With President Donald Trump headed to meet President Xi Jinping in mid‑May, that nervousness matters for every American with a job tied to trade, tech, or national security.
What Rudd actually warned about
Rudd — President and CEO of Asia Society and a former Australian prime minister — said Beijing finds President Trump’s unpredictability “troublesome.” That’s not a personality knock so much as a strategic observation: China prefers slow, clear signals from Washington on hot‑button issues like Taiwan, technology controls and tariffs. When U.S. messaging jumps around, Beijing’s risk‑calculations get messier and that invites mistakes nobody wants near the Pacific.
Why that anxiety has a real price
Think about it in practical terms: a Chinese misstep over Taiwan could force American sailors, pilots and ordinary families into an ugly spot, and abrupt changes to tariffs or export controls can wipe out a Midwest soybean market or scramble chipmakers’ supply lines overnight. CEOs being invited to tag along on the trip underline the stakes — this summit isn’t just about photo ops, it’s about airplanes, rare‑earths, AI chips and cargo manifests. For the farmer in Iowa or the machinist in Arizona, predictability isn’t a luxury, it’s livelihood.
Levers on the table — and why Beijing cares
Beijing watches U.S. moves on tariffs, export bans and critical‑minerals like a hawk because those policies hit the Chinese economic base and their tech ambitions. The Busan meeting last year produced a tactical truce — time‑limited pauses and tweaks, not a grand bargain — and Beijing will judge any mid‑May outcome on whether it’s another tactical band‑aid or something more durable. If the summit ends with vague assurances and headlines but no firm, lasting commitments, Chinese planners will still see Washington as a box of surprises.
The test for Trump and for America
Mr. Trump’s style can be effective when it wins concessions, but it can be dangerous if it leaves allies and markets guessing about long‑term policy. The real test of this summit won’t be a staged deal; it’ll be whether both sides deliver predictable, enforceable steps on trade, technology and security that reduce the odds of miscalculation. Will this meeting calm Beijing’s nerves and give American workers, soldiers and investors the steady signals they need — or will it be another show that leaves ordinary people holding the bill?
