Staff Reports
The Alaska Senate contest just added another twist. A state judge refused the Mary Peltola campaign’s mid‑count demand for a running report showing which absentee ballots were rejected. At the same time, a fresh batch of absentee votes trimmed Peltola’s lead over U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan. Translation: the counting continues, the drama deepens, and nobody should act like the outcome is settled.
Judge Thomas Matthews says the Division of Elections can’t produce a mid‑count report
Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews sided with the Alaska Division of Elections and denied the Peltola campaign’s request. The judge wrote that the elections office “simply lacks the capacity to generate the report” while it is processing ballots. The campaign wanted names of voters whose absentee ballots had been rejected so they could try to fix problems or check for disenfranchisement.
New absentee batches narrow Peltola’s lead
After the ruling, state reporting posted another tranche of absentee and early ballots that closed the gap. Recent tallies put U.S. Senate candidate Mary Peltola’s first‑choice total in the low‑121,000s versus U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan in the high‑117,000s — a margin under 4,000 votes. Those added ballots, including Mat‑Su area absentee shipments, favored the incumbent and show how volatile this count still is.
Ranked‑choice voting and the “decoy” drama could decide the result
Because Alaska uses ranked‑choice voting, nobody wins until a candidate tops 50 percent or transfers are complete. The votes for lower‑placing candidates exceed the current margin between Peltola and Sullivan. Add to that the mess around same‑name and third‑party candidates — the so‑called “Decoy Dan” and Republican Gerald Heikes — and you have a recipe for transfers to swing the race. If Heikes’ backers listed Senator Sullivan as their second choice, Peltola’s lead could vanish. Politics, meet math.
What to watch next — appeals, remaining absentee ballots, and the ranked‑choice tabulation
Keep an eye on whether the Peltola campaign appeals Judge Matthews’ order. Also watch the remaining absentee and overseas ballots and the next round of ranked‑choice tabulation that will redistribute lower‑place votes. Alaska’s Division of Elections and Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom are doing the heavy lift here, and Carol Beecher, as Director of the Division, has the job of getting it right. Conservatives should push for transparency and speed — not mid‑count spectacle — and be ready for a tight finish that might not be clear until the official certification process is complete.
